Reading KGS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KGS free→Reading KGS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KGS free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is robust, but management is volatile. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 88% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $69.23. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $69 the market pays 40× p/e — above the 21× p/e peer median but in line with its own 40× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $37 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $69–$93. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 86% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted 8.19x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated robust grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 35% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.73 → $0.75 (+2.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.8% above current price.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$125.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$321.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,420.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows financial health and value for shareholders.
Confirms:Kodiak declares a dividend of $0.49 per share for the next quarter.
Disproves:The company cuts or suspends the dividend payout.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KGS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 11, 2026, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release providing information on its results of operations and financial condition for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information under this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$69.00 – $93.00 (median $84.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-04
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Equipment & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KGS Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SLB Schlumberger | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BKR Baker Hughes | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
HAL Halliburton | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
FTI TechnipFMC | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated volatile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=252).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Kodiak aims to increase power generation capacity by 300 to 500 MWs annually through 2030.
Kodiak increased its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $820 million to $860 million.
Kodiak continues to maintain its quarterly cash dividend, recently set at $0.49 per share.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Focus on improving operating income through efficiency and cost management.
Why it matters: Closing the acquisition will confirm Kodiak's expansion into distributed power. This could boost growth and revenue.
Confirms:The purchase of Distributed Power Solutions will close on or before April 1, 2026.
Disproves:The acquisition faces delays or fails to close as planned.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend shows Kodiak's commitment to returning value to shareholders. A cut could signal financial stress.
Confirms:The company declares a dividend of $0.49 per share in the next quarter.
Disproves:The company reduces the dividend payout below $0.49 per share.
Why it matters: More power generation helps Kodiak grow and make more money.
Confirms:Kodiak will get over 300 MWs of power generation next quarter.
Disproves:Power generation growth is under 300 MWs next quarter.
Why it matters: This growth rate would show Kodiak is improving its revenue growth strategy. It would also indicate the company is overcoming sector headwinds.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 7% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: This growth shows that Kodiak is making more money. It is also managing costs well.
Confirms:Operating income exceeds $100 million in the next quarter.
Disproves:Operating income falls below $90 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If sector growth picks up, it could benefit Kodiak's revenue. Slowing sector growth could hurt Kodiak's performance.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is now close to 8% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Other Events. On May 13, 2026, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters listed in Schedule I thereto (the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell 10,563,380 shares of its common stock, par value $0.01 per share (“Common Stock”), at a price to the public of $71.00 per share (the “Equity…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 7, 2026, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing a quarterly cash dividend of $0.49 per share of common stock payable on May 28, 2026 to holders of record as of the close of business on May 18, 2026 (the “Common Stock Dividend”) and, in conjunction with the Common Stock Dividend, Kodiak Gas Services, LLC, a subsidiary of the Company (“Kodiak Services”) declared a distribution on its units of $0.49 per unit payable on May 28,…
Completion of Acquisition of Disposition of Assets. The information set forth in
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 1, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), Kodiak Gas Services, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), completed the transactions contemplated by that certain Membership Interest Purchase Agreement, dated as of February 5, 2026 (the “Purchase Agreement”), by and among the Company, Kodiak Gas Services, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (the “Buyer”), Distributed Power Solutions, LLC, a Texas limit…