Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$44.31+0.54%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-7.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.04 → 2.81 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	393.8M
EPS	—	0.601
FY 2026 · Annual
Compression Infrastructure revenue	$1.25B–$1.28B	—
Other Services revenue	$125M–$160M	—
Power Infrastructure revenue	$95M–$125M	—
Revenue	—	1.52B
EPS	—	1.987
EBITDA	$830M–$860Mnon-GAAP	—
growth capital expenditure	$680M–$750M	—
maintenance capital expenditure	$80M–$90M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.74B
EPS	—	2.807

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase Adjusted EBITDA to $820-$860 million in 2026	Adjusted EBITDA is guided to $820-$860 million in 2026.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $820 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Initial 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance was $750-$780 million in 2025-Q4, raised to $820-$860 million in 2026-Q1, and further refined to $830-$860 million in 2026-Q2 after DPS acquisition. The trajectory shows management raising expectations consistent with growth initiatives. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.49 per share	The company pays a steady dividend of $0.49 per share.	Intact	quarterly dividend falls below $0.49 per share	Dividend per share: $0.49 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.49 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20260.49 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: cf664f1a-a7bd-47af-9ffe-6320cbbe186c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company consistently declared and paid a quarterly dividend of $0.49 per share from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2, demonstrating a stable capital return policy. The trajectory is delivering on dividend maintenance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Expand power generation capacity by 300-500 MW annually	Kodiak grows power capacity by 300-500 MW yearly through 2030.	Intact	annual power capacity growth falls below 260 MW	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management announced procurement of over 260 MWs additional capacity in 2026-Q1 and completed acquisition adding 395 MWs in 2026-Q2. The company targets annual growth of 300 to 500 MWs through 2030 with a goal exceeding 2 gigawatts by decade end. The trajectory is delivering with clear capacity expansion milestones. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain revenue growth near 22% annually	A supporting condition in Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 21.9% YoY.	Broken	revenue growth falls below 21.9% YoY	Revenue growth: 21.15% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 21.9% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202621.14867 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: cf664f1a-a7bd-47af-9ffe-6320cbbe186c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management announced procurement of over 260 MWs additional capacity in 2026-Q1 and completed acquisition adding 395 MWs in 2026-Q2. The company targets annual growth of 300 to 500 MWs through 2030 with a goal exceeding 2 gigawatts by decade end. The trajectory is delivering with clear capacity expansion milestones. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.81

$2.98 → $2.81 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.74B

$1.75B → $1.74B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.98	$1,753,055,150	6 / 11
2026-07-25	$2.94	$1,770,021,554	5 / 8
2026-07-26	$2.98	$1,753,055,150	6 / 11
2026-07-27	$2.94	$1,770,021,554	5 / 8
2026-07-28	$2.94	$1,770,021,554	5 / 8
2026-07-29	$3.08	$1,753,300,550	7 / 12
2026-07-30	$3.08	$1,753,300,550	7 / 12
2026-07-31	$3.08	$1,753,300,550	7 / 12
2026-08-01	$2.94	$1,768,942,973	6 / 9
2026-08-02	$3.08	$1,753,300,550	7 / 12
2026-08-03	$3.08	$1,753,300,550	7 / 12
2026-08-04	$3.08	$1,753,300,550	7 / 12
2026-08-05	$3.08	$1,753,300,550	7 / 12
2026-08-06	$2.94	$1,768,942,973	7 / 9
2026-08-07	$2.94	$1,768,942,973	7 / 9
2026-08-08	$3.08	$1,753,300,550	7 / 12
2026-08-09	$2.94	$1,768,942,973	7 / 9
2026-08-10	$2.94	$1,768,942,973	7 / 9
2026-08-12	$2.94	$1,768,942,973	7 / 9
2026-08-13	$2.94	$1,768,942,973	7 / 9
2026-08-14	$2.94	$1,768,942,973	7 / 9
2026-08-15	$2.94	$1,768,942,973	7 / 9
2026-08-16	$2.94	$1,768,942,973	7 / 9
2026-08-17	$2.94	$1,768,942,973	7 / 9
2026-08-18	$2.94	$1,768,942,973	7 / 9
2026-08-19	$2.94	$1,768,942,973	7 / 9
2026-08-20	$3.00	$1,774,659,807	7 / 9
2026-08-21	$3.00	$1,774,659,807	7 / 9
2026-08-22	$3.02	$1,769,094,038	7 / 9
2026-08-23	$3.02	$1,769,094,038	7 / 9
2026-08-24	$3.02	$1,769,094,038	7 / 9
2026-08-25	$3.02	$1,769,094,038	7 / 9
2026-08-26	$3.02	$1,769,094,038	6 / 9
2026-08-27	$3.02	$1,769,094,038	6 / 9
2026-08-28	$3.02	$1,769,094,038	6 / 9
2026-08-29	$3.05	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-08-30	$3.05	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-08-31	$3.05	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-01	$3.05	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-02	$3.05	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-03	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-04	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-05	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-06	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-07	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-08	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-09	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-10	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-11	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-12	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-13	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-14	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-15	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-16	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-17	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-18	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-19	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-20	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-21	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-22	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-23	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-24	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-25	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-26	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-27	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-28	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-29	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-09-30	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-10-01	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-10-02	$3.04	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-10-03	$3.00	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-10-04	$3.00	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-10-05	$3.00	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-10-06	$3.00	$1,770,324,807	6 / 9
2026-10-07	$3.00	$1,768,401,730	6 / 9
2026-10-08	$3.00	$1,768,401,730	6 / 9
2026-10-09	$2.92	$1,750,958,487	6 / 9
2026-10-10	$2.92	$1,750,958,487	6 / 9
2026-10-11	$2.84	$1,748,650,795	6 / 9
2026-10-12	$2.84	$1,748,650,795	6 / 9
2026-10-13	$2.83	$1,747,070,872	6 / 9
2026-10-14	$2.83	$1,747,070,872	6 / 9
2026-10-15	$2.83	$1,746,748,103	6 / 9
2026-10-16	$2.83	$1,746,748,103	6 / 9
2026-10-17	$2.83	$1,746,748,103	6 / 9
2026-10-18	$2.81	$1,741,400,333	6 / 9
2026-10-19	$2.81	$1,741,400,333	6 / 9
2026-10-20	$2.81	$1,739,246,487	6 / 9
2026-10-21	$2.81	$1,739,246,487	6 / 9
2026-10-22	$2.81	$1,739,246,487	6 / 9
2026-10-23	$2.81	$1,739,246,487	6 / 9
2026-10-24	$2.81	$1,739,246,487	6 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	13	0	0
2026-06-01	14	0	0
2026-07-01	15	0	0
2026-08-01	15	0	0
2026-09-01	15	0	0
2026-10-01	15	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 16 · prior Aug 13

$88.00 → $82.00-6.8%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 12

$72.00New observation · no comparable prior

JefferiesOct 8 · prior Aug 10

$69.00 → $65.00-5.8%

BarclaysOct 5 · prior Jul 8

$72.00 → $67.00-6.9%

$0$48.40$96.80

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase Adjusted EBITDA to $820-$860 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.49 per shareDividend per share: $0.49 per share
Expand power generation capacity by 300-500 MW annuallyDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain revenue growth near 22% annuallyPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

KGS is a growth-oriented energy business with a sector tailwind, rather than a low-risk or deep-value case. Its multi-year view is intact, though management has been volatile and the evidence snapshot gives only medium confidence.

What's priced into Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.

KGS is expensive versus peers, with a 1.17 premium, while the expectations gap is close to aligned. The evidence suggests the valuation is justified rather than fragile, but model confidence is low and the valuation still leaves limited room for execution problems.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, capacity expansion and a higher 2026 Adjusted EBITDA outlook support growth; management has announced and completed additions, though the capacity priority is rated mixed. Near term, results have been strong overall but uneven, with an earnings miss in August after a May beat, and the industry has a high miss rate. Guidance is a key credibility risk if management reverses its recent increases.

What Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on continued capacity growth and delivery against the raised 2026 guidance. Strong results and higher guidance from sector leaders SLB, BKR, and HAL would support the sector tailwind; misses or lower guidance could weaken it. A KGS guidance cut after recent increases would add a credibility concern.