Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$64.05-0.14%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Kodiak grows power capacity by 300-500 MW yearly through 2030. Adjusted EBITDA is guided to $820-$860 million in 2026. The company pays a steady dividend of $0.49 per share. Sales grew 6.2% last quarter, showing steady demand.
Power expansion may slow, hurting growth. EBITDA could miss raised guidance. Dividend cuts are possible if cash flow weakens.
The price is about 20% above our fair value near $56. Analysts expect 22% revenue growth. Our fair value is 33% below the Street median of $84.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $820 million in FY26
Raise full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance reflecting acquisition and organic growth.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Initial 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance was $750-$780 million in 2025-Q4, raised to $820-$860 million in 2026-Q1, and further refined to $830-$860 million in 2026-Q2 after DPS acquisition. The trajectory shows management raising expectations consistent with growth initiatives.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on expanding power generation capacity. The current thesis state is intact, despite recent volatility in management performance and earnings results.
The market appears to have priced in a premium compared to peers, reflecting justified expectations based on the company's recent performance. However, there is a low expectations gap, indicating that the market does not anticipate significant changes in fundamentals in the near term.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, with management focused on maintaining dividend payouts and gradually increasing Adjusted EBITDA guidance. There is a moderate risk of missing earnings expectations, but the overall financial performance has been strong.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on power generation expansion and maintain credibility after recent guidance changes. Additionally, sector performance and inflation trends will be key factors influencing KGS's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss is a key reason. This miss raises concerns about management's ability to meet commitments. The company is facing challenges in a turbulent market environment.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Increased Adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $830 million to $860 million.”
“Increased 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $820 million to $860 million.”
“Provided initial 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance expected to be in the range of $750 million to $780 million.”
Breaks if: quarterly dividend falls below $0.49 per share
Sustain quarterly cash dividends at $0.49 per share reflecting commitment to shareholder returns.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company consistently declared and paid a quarterly dividend of $0.49 per share from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2, demonstrating a stable capital return policy. The trajectory is delivering on dividend maintenance.
“Declared cash dividend of $0.49 per share for second quarter of 2026.”
“Declared cash dividend of $0.49 per share for first quarter of 2026.”
“Declared cash dividend of $0.49 per share for fourth quarter of 2025.”
Breaks if: annual power capacity growth falls below 260 MW
Grow power generation capacity through acquisition and organic expansion targeting over 2 gigawatts by 2030.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management announced procurement of over 260 MWs additional capacity in 2026-Q1 and completed acquisition adding 395 MWs in 2026-Q2. The company targets annual growth of 300 to 500 MWs through 2030 with a goal exceeding 2 gigawatts by decade end. The trajectory is delivering with clear capacity expansion milestones.
“Acquisition of DPS adds approximately 395 megawatts of generation capacity, expanding platform beyond contract compression.”
“Procured over 260 megawatts of additional power generation capacity; expect annual growth of 300 to 500 MWs per year through 2030.”
Breaks if: revenue growth falls below 21.9% YoY
Grow power generation capacity through acquisition and organic expansion targeting over 2 gigawatts by 2030.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management announced procurement of over 260 MWs additional capacity in 2026-Q1 and completed acquisition adding 395 MWs in 2026-Q2. The company targets annual growth of 300 to 500 MWs through 2030 with a goal exceeding 2 gigawatts by decade end. The trajectory is delivering with clear capacity expansion milestones.
“Acquisition of DPS adds approximately 395 megawatts of generation capacity, expanding platform beyond contract compression.”
“Procured over 260 megawatts of additional power generation capacity; expect annual growth of 300 to 500 MWs per year through 2030.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, KGS's performance will depend on effective management execution and favorable sector conditions. Not investment advice.