Reading LB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LB free→Reading LB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LB free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The company has a capital-unfriendly stance, and risk is elevated, with the sector backdrop presenting a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 194% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $65.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $66 LB trades at 61× p/e — 2.9× the 21× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $22 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 194% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.03x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 33% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=789).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.33 → $0.37 (+12.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 57% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.6% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$222.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$559.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,825.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC decisions on June 17 may change interest rates. This can impact Landbridge's business.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates or signals a more hawkish stance.
Confirms the other:FOMC cuts interest rates or signals a more dovish stance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, LandBridge Company LLC (NYSE: LB; NYSE TX: LB) (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 incorporated herein by reference, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Equipment & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LB LANDBRIDGE CO LLC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 26 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SLB Schlumberger | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BKR Baker Hughes | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | full | moderate |
HAL Halliburton | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
FTI TechnipFMC | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | full | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to increase its full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA outlook to $210 million to $230 million.
The company is focusing on growing its operating income as part of its financial strategy.
The company is working to improve its cash flow from operating activities.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it signals a shift from the mature phase. This could support a more positive outlook for Landbridge.
Confirms:Revenue growth re-enters above 2% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays below 2% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, LandBridge Company LLC (NYSE: LB; NYSE TX: LB) (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 incorporated herein by reference, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On November 25, 2025, DBR Land Holdings LLC (the “Issuer”), a subsidiary of LandBridge Company LLC (the “Company”), completed the previously announced private placement (the “Offering”) of $500 million aggregate principal amount of 6.250% Senior Notes due 2030 (the “Notes”). The net proceeds from the Offering, together with borrowings under the Company’s new revolving credit facility, will be used to repay all outstanding borrowings under, and termi…
shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and is not incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On November 18, 2025, DBR Land Holdings LLC (“DBR Land”), a subsidiary of LandBridge Company LLC (NYSE: LB; NYSE TX: LB) (the “Company”), entered into a revolving credit agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) by and among Texas Capital Bank, as administrative and collateral agent (the “Administrative Agent”), and the lenders party thereto (collectively, the “Lenders”). The Credit Agreement provides for lender commitments of $275 million and matures on t…