LANDBRIDGE CO LLC (LB)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-09
$86.91-1.63%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
LandBridge aims to grow adjusted EBITDA to $210-$230 million in 2026. Operating income rose from $25 million to $29 million in one year. Cash from operations improved from $16 million to $41 million. The company shows steady profit and cash growth.
LandBridge missed earnings multiple times recently. The stock trades very expensive with a PE of 83. Profit growth may slow or stall. High valuation risks a price drop if growth fades.
The market expects about 31% revenue growth next year. Our fair value is near $35, close to the current price. We see risk if growth or profits weaken.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $210 million in FY26
Continue to grow Adjusted EBITDA with a full-year 2026 outlook between $210 million and $230 million.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent financial performance that remains strong relative to its industry.
The market currently assumes an expensive valuation for LB, reflecting a durable premium compared to peers. There is a notable expectations gap, indicating that investors may be anticipating continued strong performance despite recent mixed results.
Management is on track to increase Adjusted EBITDA and operating income, which suggests a positive fundamental trajectory. However, there is a near-term risk of missing guidance, as the company has a history of mixed earnings results.
The long-term thesis hinges on whether inflation reaccelerates, which could benefit LB, and if sector leaders continue to perform well. Additionally, any cuts to guidance would negatively impact sentiment and expectations.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Increased Adjusted EBITDA guidance further reinforces this positive view. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew from $44.9 million in 2026-Q1 to $59.8 million in 2026-Q2. The company reaffirmed and increased its full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance from $205-$225 million in 2025-Q4 to $210-$230 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth and management reiterates confidence in meeting the guidance.
“The Company reaffirms its outlook for fiscal year 2026, with Adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $210 million and $230 million.”
“Increases full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA outlook to $210 million to $230 million.”
“The Company expects Adjusted EBITDA to be between $205 million and $225 million.”
Breaks if: Cash from operations falls below $41 million in Q1 2026
Increase cash flow from operations to support growth and capital allocation priorities.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities increased slightly from $41.1 million in 2026-Q1 to $41.4 million in 2026-Q2, supporting strong free cash flow generation. The trajectory is delivering steady cash flow consistent with management's stated focus.
“Cash flows from operating activities were $41.4 million in the second quarter of 2026.”
“Cash flows from operating activities were $41.1 million in the first quarter of 2026.”
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $29 million in Q1 2026
Drive sequential and year-over-year growth in operating income through diversified revenue streams and operational efficiency.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income grew significantly from $29.2 million in 2026-Q1 to $44.2 million in 2026-Q2, driven by increases in surface use royalties and other revenue streams. The trajectory shows delivering growth consistent with management's focus.
“Operating income was $44.2 million in the second quarter of 2026, up from $29.2 million in the first quarter.”
“Operating income was $29.2 million in the first quarter of 2026, up from $25.0 million in the prior year.”
Overall, LB's fundamentals appear stable, but the elevated valuation and potential risks warrant careful monitoring. Not investment advice.