LANDBRIDGE CO LLC (LB)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$79.14+2.83%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge LANDBRIDGE CO LLC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	70.9M
EPS	—	0.546
FY 2026 · Annual
EBITDA	$210M–$230Mnon-GAAP	—
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	254.66M
EPS	—	1.731
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	316.75M
EPS	—	2.262

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA of $210-$230 million in 2026	LandBridge aims to grow adjusted EBITDA to $210-$230 million in 2026.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $210 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew from $44.9 million in 2026-Q1 to $59.8 million in 2026-Q2. The company reaffirmed and increased its full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance from $205-$225 million in 2025-Q4 to $210-$230 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth and management reiterates confidence in this target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Cash from operating activities of at least $41.12 million in Q1 2026	Cash from operations improved from $16 million to $41 million.	Intact	Cash from operations falls below $41 million in Q1 2026	Cash from operations: $41.371M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $41.12 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202641,371,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash flows from operating activities increased from $15.9 million in 2025-Q1 to $41.1 million in 2026-Q1 and remained stable at $41.4 million in 2026-Q2. This reflects strong cash generation supporting growth and capital allocation, consistent with management's stated focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income of at least $29.18 million in Q1 2026	Operating income rose from $25 million to $29 million in one year.	Intact	Operating income falls below $29 million in Q1 2026	Operating income: $44.158M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $29.18 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202644,158,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 042ebe12-7a2f-4a1e-bbbc-3ddb0913d8e6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income increased sequentially from $29.2 million in 2026-Q1 to $44.2 million in 2026-Q2 and grew year-over-year from $25.0 million in 2025-Q1 to $44.2 million in 2026-Q2. Management's focus on diversified revenue streams and operational efficiency is reflected in this growth, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	3
2026-06-01	4	3
2026-07-01	4	3
2026-08-01	4	3
2026-09-01	4	3
2026-10-01	4	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 19

$91.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$50.05$100.10

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA of $210-$230 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Cash from operating activities of at least $41.12 million in Q1 2026Cash from operations: $41.371M
Operating income of at least $29.18 million in Q1 2026Operating income: $44.158M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-48.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

LANDBRIDGE CO LLC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

LB is an execution-led growth story with exposure to a supportive but turbulent energy-sector backdrop. Its long-term thesis is intact, with management priorities on track, though confidence in the evidence is medium and risk is elevated.

What's priced into LANDBRIDGE CO LLC

The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and an expectations gap of 0.31; model confidence is low. Valuation rose recently, while the pricing signal is tagged unjustified and its fragility is elevated, so expectations appear demanding relative to the evidence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show progress: adjusted EBITDA and operating income increased from the first to the second quarter of 2026, and operating cash flow remained stable. Management reaffirmed and increased its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance in the second quarter, but recent earnings misses and a downward trend in surprises remain risks. Debt issuance and a new financial obligation are also recent developments to monitor.

What LANDBRIDGE CO LLC hinges on

The next guidance update is a key swing factor: a cut would be a meaningful negative, while reaffirmation would support the current execution case. Over the multi-year view, the sector backdrop also matters; continued strength from COP, EOG, and OXY could sustain the tailwind, while weaker results or guidance from those companies could weaken it.

Bottom line

Over the next one to three years, LB’s thesis rests on continued delivery against earnings and cash-flow priorities and a supportive energy sector. The business progress is encouraging, but the expensive valuation and elevated risk make guidance and sector signals important. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.