Reading NOV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NOV free→Reading NOV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NOV free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, NOV is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $19.95. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $20 NOV trades at 1× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $27 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $19–$26. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 30% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted 11.98x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated robust grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 35% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.16 → $0.16 (-1.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 36% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.0% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$138.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$348.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,610.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
The valuation dimension changed and became inexpensive. Risk fell. The sector backdrop remained a headwind. The macro backdrop was updated, but the specifics of that change are not provided.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends would signal strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns. This aligns with management's focus.
Confirms:Management announces a dividend increase of at least 5% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Management will keep the current dividend the same, with no increase.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NOV yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 27, 2026, NOV Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and conference call in connection therewith. A copy of the release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. A presentation to accompany the conference call, which contains certain historical and forward-looking information relating to the Company (the “ Presentation Materials ”), has been…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$19.00 – $26.00 (median $21.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-04
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Equipment & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NOV NOV Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SLB Schlumberger | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BKR Baker Hughes | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | full | moderate |
HAL Halliburton | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
FTI TechnipFMC | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | full | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Energy names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 45% for the rest of the cohort, n=249).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
NOV aims to manage costs and improve operational efficiency amidst challenging market conditions.
NOV is committed to enhancing shareholder returns by maintaining and increasing dividend payouts.
NOV aims to sustain revenue growth despite market challenges and geopolitical uncertainties.
Why it matters: This drop in revenue shows ongoing problems from global tensions and market issues.
Confirms:In Q2 2026, revenues fell by 4% to 6% compared to last year.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenues decline less than 4% or grow year over year.
Why it matters: New contracts would show demand is coming back and help revenue grow soon.
Confirms:NOV announces new contracts or orders worth over $500 million.
Disproves:No significant new contracts or orders announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Improving revenue growth would show that NOV is maintaining its growth priority. This is key for investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: This range shows how well NOV is handling costs during tough market times.
Confirms one read:Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 is between $185 million and $215 million.
Confirms the other:Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 falls outside the range of $185 million to $215 million.
Why it matters: Cost management is important for NOV. It helps them make more money and work better.
Confirms:Management says they will cut operating costs by at least 10% next quarter.
Disproves:No progress in cost management or a rise in operating costs.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 15, 2026, NOV Inc. (the " Company ") issued a press release providing an operational update and certain preliminary unaudited financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Current Report shall not be deemed to be "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Election of Director On March 17, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of NOV Inc. (the “ Company ”) appointed Sanjay K. Chowbey as a director of the Company, with a term of office expiring at the next annual meeting of stockholders. Mr. Chowbey will serve on the Board’s Audit Committee. As compensation for his service on the Board, Mr. Cho…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Appointment of Officers On February 19, 2026, Ben A. Guill, director of NOV Inc. (the “ Company ”), informed the Company’s Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) that he resigned as a member of the Board effective following the Company’s Board meeting on February 19, 2026 due to his future personal schedule a…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 4, 2026, NOV Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing earnings for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 and conference call in connection therewith. A copy of the release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. A presentation to accompany the conference call, which contains certain historical and forward-looking information relating to the Company (the “ Presentation Materials ”), has…