NOV Inc. (NOV)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$19.76+5.33%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge NOV Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.27 → 1.27 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	2.29B
EPS	—	0.299
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	8.68B
EPS	—	0.917
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	9.13B
EPS	—	1.27

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Sustain dividend per share at or above $0.09	Dividend per share rose from $0.075 to $0.09, showing strong shareholder returns.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.09	Dividend per share: $0.18 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.09 USD_PER_SHARE. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 29, 20260.18 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ecc38acf-2e8b-4f64-beb9-d50e25246e30. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve operating income above $47M	A primary condition in NOV Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=47 USD_MILLIONS.	Intact	Operating income falls below $47M next quarter	Operating income: $193M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=47 USD_MILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 29, 2026193,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ecc38acf-2e8b-4f64-beb9-d50e25246e30. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain revenue near $1.93B next quarter	The company targets about $1.93B revenue next quarter despite market challenges.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.93B next quarter	Revenue: $2.134B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1.93 USD_BILLIONS. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Jul 29, 20262,134,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ecc38acf-2e8b-4f64-beb9-d50e25246e30. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.27

$1.27 → $1.27 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$9.13B

$9.07B → $9.13B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.27	$9,071,405,700	15 / 17
2026-07-25	$1.27	$9,071,405,700	15 / 17
2026-07-26	$1.33	$9,065,852,105	13 / 14
2026-07-27	$1.33	$9,065,852,105	13 / 14
2026-07-28	$1.27	$9,071,405,700	15 / 17
2026-07-29	$1.27	$9,071,405,700	15 / 17
2026-07-30	$1.27	$9,071,405,700	15 / 17
2026-07-31	$1.27	$9,105,132,250	15 / 17
2026-08-01	$1.30	$9,104,647,340	13 / 14
2026-08-02	$1.26	$9,120,073,420	15 / 17
2026-08-03	$1.30	$9,104,647,340	13 / 14
2026-08-04	$1.30	$9,104,647,340	13 / 14
2026-08-05	$1.26	$9,112,426,370	15 / 17
2026-08-06	$1.30	$9,104,647,340	13 / 14
2026-08-07	$1.30	$9,097,000,281	13 / 14
2026-08-08	$1.27	$9,112,426,370	15 / 17
2026-08-09	$1.27	$9,112,426,370	15 / 17
2026-08-10	$1.30	$9,097,000,281	13 / 14
2026-08-12	$1.27	$9,117,535,950	15 / 17
2026-08-13	$1.27	$9,117,535,950	15 / 17
2026-08-14	$1.30	$9,097,000,281	13 / 14
2026-08-15	$1.30	$9,097,000,281	13 / 14
2026-08-16	$1.30	$9,097,000,281	13 / 14
2026-08-17	$1.30	$9,097,000,281	13 / 14
2026-08-18	$1.30	$9,097,000,281	13 / 14
2026-08-19	$1.30	$9,097,000,281	13 / 14
2026-08-20	$1.28	$9,099,227,516	12 / 13
2026-08-21	$1.27	$9,095,408,096	12 / 13
2026-08-22	$1.27	$9,095,408,096	12 / 13
2026-08-23	$1.27	$9,095,408,096	12 / 13
2026-08-24	$1.27	$9,095,408,096	12 / 13
2026-08-25	$1.27	$9,095,408,096	12 / 13
2026-08-26	$1.27	$9,095,408,096	12 / 13
2026-08-27	$1.27	$9,095,408,096	12 / 13
2026-08-28	$1.27	$9,095,408,096	12 / 13
2026-08-29	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-08-30	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-08-31	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-01	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-02	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-03	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-04	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-05	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-06	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-07	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-08	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-09	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-10	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-11	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-12	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-13	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-14	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-15	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-16	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-17	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-18	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-19	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-20	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-21	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-22	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-23	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-24	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-25	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-26	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-27	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-28	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-29	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-09-30	$1.27	$9,084,015,315	12 / 13
2026-10-01	$1.27	$9,078,579,747	12 / 13
2026-10-02	$1.27	$9,090,226,806	12 / 13
2026-10-03	$1.27	$9,087,579,747	12 / 13
2026-10-04	$1.27	$9,087,579,747	12 / 13
2026-10-05	$1.27	$9,087,579,747	12 / 13
2026-10-06	$1.27	$9,087,579,747	12 / 13
2026-10-07	$1.27	$9,087,579,747	12 / 13
2026-10-08	$1.27	$9,087,579,747	12 / 13
2026-10-09	$1.27	$9,139,428,481	12 / 13
2026-10-10	$1.27	$9,139,428,481	12 / 13
2026-10-11	$1.27	$9,139,428,481	12 / 13
2026-10-12	$1.27	$9,139,428,481	12 / 13
2026-10-13	$1.27	$9,139,428,481	12 / 13
2026-10-14	$1.27	$9,139,428,481	12 / 13
2026-10-15	$1.27	$9,136,541,975	12 / 13
2026-10-16	$1.27	$9,136,541,975	12 / 13
2026-10-17	$1.27	$9,136,541,975	12 / 13
2026-10-18	$1.27	$9,136,541,975	12 / 13
2026-10-19	$1.27	$9,136,541,975	12 / 13
2026-10-20	$1.27	$9,136,535,725	12 / 13
2026-10-21	$1.27	$9,132,371,654	12 / 13
2026-10-22	$1.27	$9,132,371,654	12 / 13
2026-10-23	$1.27	$9,132,371,654	12 / 13
2026-10-24	$1.27	$9,132,371,654	12 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	12	3
2026-06-01	8	11	3
2026-07-01	9	11	3
2026-08-01	9	10	2
2026-09-01	8	10	2
2026-10-01	8	11	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Sustain dividend per share at or above $0.09Dividend per share: $0.18 per share
Improve operating income above $47MOperating income: $193M
Maintain revenue near $1.93B next quarterRevenue: $2.134B

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

NOV Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

NOV is an energy-sector business with a cyclical backdrop, meaning its results can shift with industry conditions. Its long-term thesis is intact and recently moved from mixed to mildly favorable, but the evidence is not strong enough to call earnings quality durable.

What's priced into NOV Inc.

The valuation evidence points to NOV being cheap versus peers, while the overall expectations gap is modest. The evidence describes the current pricing as justified rather than showing that fragility is fully reflected, so valuation does not remove the execution and sector risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and profitability have improved: second-quarter revenue rose 4% sequentially, operating profit increased 35% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA also grew. Management has stayed on track with growth, profitability, and capital returns, while operational disruption remains a mixed area and erratic earnings make the next report a meaningful risk.

What NOV Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on NOV sustaining revenue growth and improving profitability without another guidance cut. Energy-sector momentum is another swing factor: continued strength from SLB, BKR, and HAL would support the sector backdrop, while weaker results or guidance from those companies could remove that support.