Tidewater, Inc. (TDW)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$93.07+1.16%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Tidewater supports offshore energy with a global fleet. It aims for 2026 revenue near $1.45 billion. Profit margins are guided around 50%. The Wilson Sons Ultratug acquisition should boost growth.
Earnings missed badly in Q1 with an 83% EPS surprise miss. Revenue declined 2.2% year over year. Guidance was cut concurrently, signaling risk. The sector faces headwinds and the stock is down 22% from its high.
The price is about 8% below our fair value near $78. Analysts expect 14.5% revenue growth next year. Our model sees modest growth but the recent earnings miss and guidance cut raise caution.
Breaks if: gross margin falls below 49% in FY26
Continue to emphasize operational excellence to improve vessel uptime and efficiency.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a multi-year view on a business that operates within the energy sector, which is currently experiencing a tailwind. The investment thesis is underpinned by TDW's operational improvements and successful acquisition integration, but it faces volatility in management execution and sector performance.
The current valuation of TDW is considered expensive compared to its peers, reflecting high expectations from the market. There is a significant expectations gap, indicating that the market may be pricing in more favorable outcomes than what has been delivered recently.
Fundamentals are expected to remain stable, supported by management's commitment to revenue guidance and operational excellence. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings expectations, as the company has shown erratic performance in recent quarters.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the thesis. The completion of the Wilson Sons Ultratug acquisition aligns with growth objectives. There are no new threats impacting the outlook.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: revenue falls below $1.33 billion in FY26
Maintain full-year 2026 revenue guidance in the range of $1.42 billion to $1.48 billion, adjusted for the Wilson Sons Ultratug acquisition timing.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently maintained 2026 revenue guidance in the range of $1.42 billion to $1.48 billion, adjusting modestly for the Wilson Sons Ultratug acquisition timing. Revenue for 2026-Q2 was $342.3 million, slightly up from $326.2 million in 2026-Q1, supporting the guidance. The trajectory is delivering with stable revenue and reiterated guidance.
“Updating 2026 revenue guidance range of $1.42 to $1.47 billion pro forma for the Wilson Sons Ultratug acquisition”
“Reiterating 2026 revenue guidance to $1.43 to $1.48 billion pro forma for the Wilson Sons Ultratug acquisition”
“Updating 2026 revenue guidance to $1.43 to $1.48 billion pro forma for the Wilson Sons Ultratug acquisition”
Breaks if: acquisition not completed by mid 2026
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the successful integration of the Wilson Sons Ultratug acquisition and the overall performance of the energy sector. Additionally, inflation trends and the performance of sector leaders will be crucial in shaping TDW's trajectory.
Overall, TDW's performance will be closely tied to its operational execution and sector conditions over the next few years. Not investment advice.