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Werner Enterprises (WERN)
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this month
$43.07-2.02%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, WERN trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 55% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Trucking
- Market cap
- $2.64B
- Employees
- 8,677
- IPO date
- 1994-01-14
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $43.07. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$97.66consensus
Range $97.66 – $97.66
vs price: -56% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$149.76consensus
Range $149.76 – $149.76
vs price: -71% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $43 WERN trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $98 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $29–$47. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
0.8x
peer 1.9x · own history 0.9x
Premium
0.4x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-56%
our forecast 3%
Our fair value
$97.66
range $97.66 – $97.66
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 56% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
28th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -27.56x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish1 positive, 1 negative material events / 30dfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.21 → $0.22 (+1.1% / 30d). 7 raised, 2 cut, 15 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 13% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.5% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$141.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$363.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,828.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 11d
Watch for improvements in operating income in Q2
Why it matters: Better operating income is key for Werner's recovery. It shows improved cost control and revenue.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Operating income goes up a lot compared to Q1 2026 results.
Disproves:Operating income remains negative or gets worse. This shows ongoing problems with operations.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WERN yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ODFL, XPO, and KNX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting WERN and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If WERN raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If WERN cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like ODFL, XPO, and KNX start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping WERN and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits WERN and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-107d agoItem 1.01
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT. On June 5, 2026 , Werner Receivables Company, LLC (“WRC”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Werner Enterprises, Inc. (the “Company"), entered into a third amendment ("Amendment No. 3") to its Loan and Security Agreement, as amended (the "LSA"), as borrower, together with the Company as the servicer, Wells Fargo Bank, National Association as a committed lender and group agent, GTA Funding LLC as a conduit lender, and The Toronto-Dominion Bank (“TD Bank”)…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.5 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-15
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.