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Track ODFL free→Old Dominion (ODFL)
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this month
$231.62-2.44%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, ODFL is typical but expensive. Peer multiples imply a price about 74% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. If ODFL cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Trucking
- Market cap
- $51.11B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-05-07
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $231.62. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$132.43consensus
Range $130.24 – $198.23
vs price: +75% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$221.32consensus
Range $167.10 – $414.79
vs price: +5% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $237 the market pays 50× p/e — above the 26× p/e peer median but in line with its own 51× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $132 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $201–$240. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
49.7x
peer 26.4x · own history 50.7x
Premium
1.9x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
80%
our forecast -5%
Our fair value
$132.14
range $128.15 – $199.29
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 80% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
43rd pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.40x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
47th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral17 analysts, 33% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.45 → $1.47 (+1.7% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 17 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 4 maintained. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -2.5% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$166.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$354.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,606.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- Either wayHigh confidenceQuartersactive 11d
Watch for Q2 LTL revenue change year over year
Why it matters: This metric shows if more people want Old Dominion's services or not.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Q2 LTL revenue increases year over year by more than 2%.
Confirms the other:Q2 LTL revenue decreases year over year by more than 5%.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-106d agoYahoo! Finance
Fund exit raises concerns about valuation and risks.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like XPO, KNX, and SAIA keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting ODFL and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ODFL raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-03), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If ODFL cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-03), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like XPO, KNX, and SAIA start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping ODFL and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits ODFL and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2127d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On May 21, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors had declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.29 per share of common stock, payable on June 17, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on June 3, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+4.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.