Reading XPO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track XPO free→Reading XPO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track XPO free→NYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, XPO is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 70% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $214.29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $221 XPO trades at 55× p/e — 2.3× the 23× p/e peer median, and above its own 33× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $127 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $105–$250. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 73% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.95x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.44 → $1.46 (+1.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 74% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.0% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$166.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$409.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,563.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This will show if XPO is increasing revenue as planned. Strong growth supports management's goals.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is below 3% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for XPO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
but not previously defined herein have the meaning ascribed to such terms in the Term Loan A Credit Agreement. The maturity date of the Term Loan A Credit Facility is May 29, 2029; which maturity date may spring to the date that is 91 days prior to the maturity date of the Company’s 6.250% Senior Secured Notes due 2028 issued on May 24, 2023 in an initial aggregate principal amount of $830 million (the “ 2028 Notes ”) unless (x) the aggregate principal amount of 2028 Notes outstanding on such…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$105.00 – $250.00 (median $232.50) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-06-05
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Cargo Ground Transportation.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
XPO XPO, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ODFL Old Dominion | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JBHT J.B. Hunt | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | full | moderate |
KNX Knight-Swift | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | full | moderate |
SAIA Saia | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on improving operating income in the North American LTL segment through efficiency and pricing strategies.
Drive revenue growth across segments, focusing on North American LTL and European Transportation.
Focus on increasing free cash flow to enhance shareholder value.
Continue efforts to improve operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Aim to boost net income through strategic initiatives and operational improvements.
Why it matters: Growth in adjusted operating income shows good cost control and pricing power in LTL.
Confirms:Adjusted operating income for Q2 2026 increases year over year by more than 20%.
Disproves:Adjusted operating income for Q2 2026 goes up less than 20% or goes down.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can shift company strategy. This could affect XPO's growth plans.
Confirms one read:New leaders bring a clear plan for growth and better operations.
Confirms the other:New leaders can create uncertainty about the company's plans.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows good financial management. This can increase investor trust.
Confirms:Net income rises above $120M in Q2. This shows strong management.
Disproves:Net income falls below $80M in Q2, raising concerns about financial strategy.
Why it matters: Sustained tonnage growth signals strong demand and supports revenue growth for XPO's LTL segment.
Confirms:LTL tonnage per day increases year over year by more than 0.5%.
Disproves:LTL tonnage per day declines year over year or grows less than 0.5%.
Why it matters: Net income growth is important for XPO's overall health. It reflects profitability.
Confirms:Net income increases by more than 10% year over year.
Disproves:Net income growth is less than 2% year over year.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Departure of Wendy Cassity as Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary On May 20, 2026, Wendy Cassity notified XPO, Inc. (the “Company”) of her intention to resign as chief legal officer and corporate secretary of the Company effective on or about June 18, 2026. Her resignation is for personal reasons. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of t…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, XPO, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise s…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, XPO, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”)…