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Landstar System (LSTR)
NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$216.15-1.42%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality is neutral and management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 81% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers like UPS and FDX perform. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Integrated Freight & Logistics
- Market cap
- $7.61B
- Employees
- 1,378
- IPO date
- 1996-05-10
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-28
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $216.15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$119.13consensus
Range $102.42 – $213.26
vs price: +81% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$268.45consensus
Range $265.46 – $392.04
vs price: -19% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $219 LSTR trades at 51× p/e — 2.2× the 23× p/e peer median, and above its own 21× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $118 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $157–$240. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
50.6x
peer 23.4x · own history 21.4x
Premium
2.2x peer
2.4x its own history
Growth the price needs
86%
our forecast -10%
Our fair value
$118.15
range $101.49 – $208.89
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 86% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
71st pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.98x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
68th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish16 analysts, 12% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.47 → $1.47 (+0.4% / 30d). 14 raised, 0 cut, 16 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 12% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 9.3% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 7.1% avg surprise
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$119.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$272.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,740.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 11d
Watch for dividend growth announcement
Why it matters: The company is on track to maintain dividend growth. An announcement would confirm this.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Announcement of a dividend increase in the next quarter.
Disproves:No dividend increase is announced in the next quarter.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LSTR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like UPS, FDX, and JBHT keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting LSTR and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If LSTR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If LSTR cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like UPS, FDX, and JBHT start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping LSTR and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits LSTR and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-281mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026, Landstar System, Inc. (“Landstar” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.