Reading HTLD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HTLD free→Reading HTLD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HTLD free→NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, HTLD is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 29% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile, historically a value-trap pattern. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.82. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $16 HTLD trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $22 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $12–$15. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 30% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.00x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.07 → $0.00 (+103.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 17% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$147.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$371.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,506.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A bigger drop shows ongoing demand issues and problems with operations.
Confirms:Q2 operating revenue falls more than 20% compared to Q2 2025.
Disproves:Q2 operating revenue declines less than 20% year over year or grows.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HTLD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On May 14, 2026, the Compensation Committee (the "Compensation Committee") of the Board of Directors of Heartland Express, Inc. (the "Company") approved the following compensation increase to three of the Company's named executive officers. The increases were effective immediately. Named Executive Officer Previous Annualized Salary New Annualized Sa…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$12.00 – $15.00 (median $12.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-08
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Cargo Ground Transportation.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HTLD Heartland Express, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
ODFL Old Dominion | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JBHT J.B. Hunt | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | full | moderate |
XPO XPO, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KNX Knight-Swift | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on improving operating income through cost control and operational efficiency.
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Operating ratio improved from 106.8% in 2025-Q1 to 101.9% in 2026-Q1, indicating progress in operational efficiency. Despite recurring losses, the trajectory shows limited progress towards improving operating income.
“CEO: 'Significant operating ratio improvement (101.9%) compared to Q1 2025 (106.8%).'”
“CEO: 'Sequential improvement in operations as a direct result of hard work and discipline.'”
“CEO: 'Investments made to improve internal processes and systems.'”
“CEO: 'Focus on driver utilization and reduction of unproductive miles.'”
“CEO: 'Continued focus on operational improvements and cost control.'”
“CEO: 'Sequential improvement in operations due to strategic decisions.'”
Increase cash flow from operations to support investments and debt reduction.
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Cash from operations increased from $14.9M in 2025-Q4 to $23.2M in 2026-Q1, supporting investments and debt reduction. The trajectory shows progress in enhancing cash flow from operations.
Continue regular quarterly dividend payments to shareholders.
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Dividends declared per share remained at $0.02 from 2025-Q1 to 2026-Q1, demonstrating a consistent commitment to shareholder returns. The trajectory is stable, maintaining regular dividend payments.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends shows financial strength. It helps build trust with investors.
Confirms:The company will pay a regular dividend in Q2.
Disproves:No dividend is declared in Q2.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows good cost control. This can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 operating income improves from last year. This shows less loss.
Disproves:Q2 operating income gets worse or stays negative compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company strategy and performance. This could influence investor views.
Confirms one read:New CFO uses cost-saving measures. This leads to better financial results.
Confirms the other:The new CFO does not improve operations. This may hurt financial performance.
Why it matters: A lower operating ratio means better cost control. This is important for making more money.
Confirms:Q2 operating ratio drops to below 100%.
Disproves:The operating ratio is over 100%.
Why it matters: Higher cash flow shows better health. It helps with investments and paying off debt.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations exceeds $25 million in Q2.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations falls below $20 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Less cash from operations can limit investments and raise financial risks.
Confirms:Cash from operations falls below $20 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Cash from operations stays above $20 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue stabilizes or improves, it shows recovery. This can help future growth.
Confirms:Q2 operating revenue exceeds $176.3 million, showing growth from Q1 2026.
Disproves:If Q2 operating revenue is below $176.3 million, it shows ongoing revenue problems.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On April 23, 2026 , Heartland Express, Inc. announced its unaudited financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On April 16, 2026, David P. Millis, President of Millis Transfer and a director of Heartland Express, Inc. (the “Company”), informed the Company of his decision to retire as President of Millis Transfer, effective April 24, 2026. Mr. Millis will continue to serve as a director of the Company following his retirement. In association with his retireme…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On March 25, 2026, Dr. Benjamin J. Allen, a member of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Heartland Express, Inc. (the “Company”), notified the Company of his decision not to stand for re-election at the Company's 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”). Dr. Allen will continue to serve on the Board, as well as Chairperson of…
OTHER EVENTS On March 13, 2026, Heartland Express, Inc. (the “Company”) announced the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend. A copy of the press release issued by the Company is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
“CEO: 'Positive cash flows from operations to invest in our fleet.'”
“CEO: 'Operating cash flows as a percentage of operating revenue were 8.3%.”
“CEO: 'Our ability to aggressively pay down debt even during a period of prolonged freight weakness.'”
“CEO: 'Focus on cash flow generation to support strategic initiatives.'”
“CEO: 'Continued focus on enhancing cash from operations.'”
“CEO: 'Operating cash flows as a percentage of operating revenue were 11.1%.”
“Press Release: 'Regular dividend of $0.02 per share was declared.'”
“Press Release: 'Regular dividends of $0.02 per share were declared during each quarter of 2025.'”
“Press Release: 'Continued commitment to shareholders through the payment of cash dividends.'”
“Press Release: 'Regular dividend payments maintained.'”
“Press Release: 'Commitment to regular dividend payments.'”
“Press Release: 'Regular dividends declared each quarter.'”