Reading ULH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ULH free→Reading ULH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ULH free→NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year, and risk is high. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If ULH cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $16.26. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $16 ULH trades at 63× p/e — 2.7× the 24× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $14 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 18% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.21x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.25 → $0.19 (-24.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$324.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$722.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,888.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector grows faster, Universal Logistics may gain from it.
Confirms:3-year revenue growth in the industrial sector exceeds 5% again.
Disproves:3-year revenue growth in the industrial sector remains below 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ULH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer As previously disclosed in the Current Report on Form 8-K filed by the Company on April 8, 2026, Michael H. Rogers was appointed to serve as Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of the Company, effective June 1, 2026. On April 29, 2026, the Company’s subsidiary, Universal Management Services, Inc., entered int…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Cargo Ground Transportation.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ULH Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | full | high |
ODFL Old Dominion | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JBHT J.B. Hunt | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | full | moderate |
XPO XPO, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KNX Knight-Swift | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | full | moderate |
17 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company continues to declare a consistent cash dividend of $0.105 per share.
The company is focused on addressing earnings performance following recent misses.
The company is managing the transition of its Chief Financial Officer to ensure continuity.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 1, 2026, Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial and operating results for the thirteen weeks ended April 4, 2026, a copy of which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 1, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that our Board declared a cash dividend of $0.105 per share of common stock. The dividend is payable on July 1, 2026 to stockholders of record on June 1, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 2, 2026, Jude M. Beres notified Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc., a Nevada corporation (the “Company”), of his resignation as Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of the Company, effective May 29, 2026, in order to pursue other opportunities outside the transportation and logistics industry. Mr. Beres’ resignation was not the result of…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 13, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing our financial and operating results for the thirteen weeks and year ended December 31, 2025, a copy of which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K.