Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. (ULH)

NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$16.74-3.52%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2027-01-04
Revenue	—	392M
EPS	—	0.16
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.53B
EPS	—	1.34
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.6B
EPS	—	1.15

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend at $0.105 per share	The company keeps paying a $0.105 dividend per share.	Intact	Dividend cut below $0.105 per share	Dividend per share: $0.10 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $0.105 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 20260.105 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7ff08456-73aa-4b17-b87f-406d163c3ed7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company consistently declared and paid a quarterly dividend of $0.105 per share from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2. This demonstrates management's commitment to maintaining stable capital return to shareholders. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Improve earnings from -$3.5M loss in 2026-Q1	A primary condition in Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Net income improves above break-even.	Improving	Net income stays negative over next 4 quarters	Net income: $26.186M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income improves above break-even. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 202626,186,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7ff08456-73aa-4b17-b87f-406d163c3ed7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 5% in fiscal 2025	A primary condition in Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 4% to 6%.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 4% in FY25	Operating margin: 11.9% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 4% to 6%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 202611.899358 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7ff08456-73aa-4b17-b87f-406d163c3ed7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue around $375 million in fiscal 2025	Revenue is expected around $375 million next year.	Intact	Revenue falls below $365 million in FY25	Revenue: $379.323M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$375 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 2026379,323,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7ff08456-73aa-4b17-b87f-406d163c3ed7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	0	1	0
2026-06-01	0	1	0
2026-07-01	0	1	0
2026-08-01	0	1	0
2026-09-01	0	1	0
2026-10-01	0	1	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend at $0.105 per shareDividend per share: $0.10 per share
Improve earnings from -$3.5M loss in 2026-Q1Net income: $26.186M
Operating margin near 5% in fiscal 2025Operating margin: 11.9%
Revenue around $375 million in fiscal 2025Revenue: $379.323M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-50.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on restoring profitability. The current thesis state indicates mixed results with some progress in operating margins, but high volatility in management and near-term risks remain significant.

What's priced into Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.

The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, suggesting that ULH is seen as cheap compared to its peers. However, the fundamentals are under scrutiny, as recent performance has not matched industry leaders.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is making strides in improving operating margins, with recent results showing progress. However, the company's recent financial performance has been neutral, and there is a notable risk of missing earnings expectations in the near term.

What Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain profitability and the performance of sector bellwethers like ODFL, XPO, and KNX. Any guidance cuts or negative trends from these companies could significantly impact ULH's outlook.