Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. (ULH)
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-09
$18.26-1.78%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Universal Logistics aims to fix earnings after recent losses. They guide profit margins near 5% in 2025. Revenue is expected around $375 million next year. The company keeps paying a $0.105 dividend per share.
Earnings have fallen from $3.7M profit to a $3.5M loss. The stock trades at a high 54 P/E ratio. Freight demand worries may hurt revenue growth. CFO changes add uncertainty to management.
The price is about 17% above our fair value near $12. Analysts expect 4% revenue growth. Our model sees risks to earnings and growth.
Breaks if: Dividend cut below $0.105 per share
Breaks if: Net income stays negative over next 4 quarters
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround scenario. The company is working to improve its operating margins and restore profitability, but management has shown volatility, which adds uncertainty to the thesis.
The current valuation suggests that the market views ULH as cheap compared to its peers. However, there is a notable expectations gap, indicating that investors may be cautious about the company's ability to deliver consistent results.
Fundamentals are likely to remain mixed in the near term. While management is making progress on profitability, recent financial performance has been neutral, and there is a risk of missing earnings expectations again.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like ODFL, XPO, and KNX. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable environment for ULH. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could lead to further challenges.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
The company is focused on addressing earnings performance following recent misses.
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 4% in FY25
The company is focused on addressing earnings performance following recent misses.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $365 million in FY25
The company is focused on addressing earnings performance following recent misses.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ULH's success will depend on its ability to navigate sector headwinds and restore profitability. Not investment advice.