Reading SAIA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SAIA free→Reading SAIA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SAIA free→NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with SAIA trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 107% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If SAIA cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $474.19. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $474 SAIA trades at 52× p/e — 2.2× the 23× p/e peer median, and above its own 33× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $225 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $265–$500. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 111% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.45x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.26 → $3.30 (+1.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 45% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 0.5% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$178.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$413.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,492.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: These growth rates show if demand is improving for Saia's services. Strong growth supports revenue growth.
Confirms:LTL shipments per workday increase above 5.6% in April and 3.7% in May compared to last year.
Disproves:LTL shipments per workday growth falls below 3% in either month compared to last year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SAIA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026 Saia, Inc. issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 results. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section and shall not…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$265.00 – $500.00 (median $450.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-06-05
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Cargo Ground Transportation.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SAIA Saia | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ODFL Old Dominion | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JBHT J.B. Hunt | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | full | moderate |
XPO XPO, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KNX Knight-Swift | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on improving operational efficiency through network optimization and technology investments.
Continue to focus on maintaining revenue growth through customer service and network expansion.
Continue investments in network expansion and technology to enhance service and operational efficiency.
Focus on announcing and integrating acquisitions to drive growth.
Aim to improve operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue growth is key for Saia's performance. It shows market demand.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector shows renewed growth, it could benefit Saia's performance.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth speeds up to about 8% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows Saia can manage costs well. It affects profits.
Confirms:Operating income improves by more than 10% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Disproves:Operating income falls or stays the same compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Rapidly rising diesel prices can hurt margins. Monitoring this helps gauge cost pressures on Saia.
Confirms:Diesel prices stabilize or decrease, reducing the margin headwind from fuel costs.
Disproves:Diesel prices are rising fast. This hurts profits in the next quarter.
Regulation FD Disclosure. Attached as Exhibit 99.1 is the transcript of the conference call to discuss the first quarter earnings of Saia, Inc. The Securities and Exchange Commission encourages companies to disclose forward-looking information so that investors can better understand the future prospects of a company and make informed investment decisions. This news release contains these types of statements, which are forward-looking within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Ref…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 10, 2026 Saia, Inc. issued a press release announcing its fourth quarter 2025 results. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section and shall…
Regulation FD Disclosure. Attached as Exhibit 99.1 is the transcript of the conference call to discuss the fourth quarter earnings of Saia, Inc. The Securities and Exchange Commission encourages companies to disclose forward-looking information so that investors can better understand the future prospects of a company and make informed investment decisions. This news release contains these types of statements, which are forward-looking within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Re…