Saia (SAIA)

NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$332.14-3.59%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Saia’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

14.22 → 14.24 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	911.05M
EPS	—	2.704
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.65B
EPS	—	11.381
Net capital expenditure	$350M–$400M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.93B
EPS	—	14.239

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Invest $1.8B in network and technology over 3 years	The company invests $1.8B in its network and technology to improve service.	Intact	Investment pace drops below $400M annually	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain operating margin near 4.5%	A primary condition in Saia's published investment case. The stated target is ~4.5% operating margin.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 3.5% next two quarters	Operating margin: 13.09% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~4.5% operating margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202613.090725 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b9d0699a-2ad2-4151-b158-4a6664c000e1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve operating income to support margins	Operational efficiency is improving, with operating income rising to $66.8M.	Improving	Operating income falls below $60M in next 4 quarters	Operating income: $125.212M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $70M in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026125,212,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b9d0699a-2ad2-4151-b158-4a6664c000e1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain revenue growth near 12% annually	A primary condition in Saia's published investment case. The stated target is >=12% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 8% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$14.24

$14.55 → $14.24 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.93B

$3.90B → $3.93B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$14.55	$3,896,105,600	19 / 18
2026-07-25	$14.55	$3,896,105,600	19 / 18
2026-07-26	$14.63	$3,900,158,399	13 / 14
2026-07-27	$14.55	$3,896,105,600	19 / 18
2026-07-28	$14.63	$3,900,158,399	13 / 14
2026-07-29	$14.64	$3,900,158,399	13 / 14
2026-07-30	$14.55	$3,896,105,600	19 / 18
2026-07-31	$14.53	$3,894,811,810	18 / 17
2026-08-01	$14.36	$3,885,333,701	13 / 13
2026-08-02	$14.25	$3,888,247,323	13 / 14
2026-08-03	$14.23	$3,884,875,170	19 / 18
2026-08-04	$14.25	$3,888,247,323	13 / 14
2026-08-05	$14.24	$3,884,875,170	20 / 18
2026-08-06	$14.20	$3,884,348,280	20 / 18
2026-08-08	$14.25	$3,888,247,323	13 / 14
2026-08-09	$14.25	$3,888,247,323	13 / 14
2026-08-10	$14.25	$3,888,247,323	13 / 14
2026-08-12	$14.25	$3,888,247,323	13 / 14
2026-08-13	$14.17	$3,882,919,950	20 / 18
2026-08-14	$14.25	$3,888,247,323	13 / 14
2026-08-15	$14.25	$3,888,247,323	14 / 14
2026-08-16	$14.25	$3,888,247,323	14 / 14
2026-08-17	$14.25	$3,888,247,323	14 / 14
2026-08-18	$14.25	$3,888,247,323	14 / 14
2026-08-19	$14.25	$3,888,247,323	14 / 14
2026-08-20	$14.11	$3,883,805,431	14 / 14
2026-08-21	$14.11	$3,883,805,431	14 / 14
2026-08-22	$14.11	$3,883,805,431	14 / 14
2026-08-23	$14.11	$3,883,805,431	14 / 14
2026-08-24	$14.11	$3,883,805,431	14 / 14
2026-08-25	$14.11	$3,883,805,431	14 / 14
2026-08-26	$14.11	$3,883,805,431	14 / 14
2026-08-27	$14.11	$3,883,805,431	14 / 14
2026-08-28	$14.11	$3,883,805,431	14 / 14
2026-08-29	$14.15	$3,878,477,214	14 / 14
2026-08-30	$14.15	$3,878,477,214	14 / 14
2026-08-31	$14.15	$3,878,477,214	14 / 14
2026-09-01	$14.15	$3,878,477,214	14 / 14
2026-09-02	$14.16	$3,878,477,214	14 / 14
2026-09-03	$14.16	$3,878,477,214	14 / 14
2026-09-04	$14.16	$3,878,624,749	14 / 14
2026-09-05	$14.16	$3,879,906,339	14 / 14
2026-09-06	$14.15	$3,877,038,046	13 / 14
2026-09-07	$14.15	$3,877,038,046	14 / 14
2026-09-08	$14.15	$3,877,038,046	14 / 14
2026-09-09	$14.15	$3,877,841,692	14 / 14
2026-09-10	$14.23	$3,885,323,154	14 / 14
2026-09-11	$14.22	$3,885,323,154	14 / 14
2026-09-12	$14.22	$3,885,323,154	14 / 14
2026-09-13	$14.22	$3,885,323,154	14 / 14
2026-09-14	$14.22	$3,885,323,154	14 / 14
2026-09-15	$14.22	$3,885,323,154	14 / 14
2026-09-16	$14.22	$3,885,323,154	14 / 14
2026-09-17	$14.22	$3,885,323,154	14 / 14
2026-09-18	$14.22	$3,885,323,154	14 / 14
2026-09-19	$14.22	$3,885,323,154	14 / 14
2026-09-20	$14.22	$3,885,323,154	14 / 14
2026-09-21	$14.22	$3,885,323,154	14 / 14
2026-09-22	$14.22	$3,885,323,154	14 / 14
2026-09-23	$14.22	$3,885,323,154	14 / 14
2026-09-24	$14.22	$3,885,323,154	14 / 14
2026-09-25	$14.22	$3,885,323,154	14 / 14
2026-09-26	$14.22	$3,885,323,154	14 / 14
2026-09-27	$14.22	$3,885,323,154	14 / 14
2026-09-28	$14.22	$3,885,323,154	14 / 14
2026-09-29	$14.25	$3,885,323,154	14 / 14
2026-09-30	$14.25	$3,885,323,154	14 / 14
2026-10-01	$14.25	$3,885,393,767	14 / 14
2026-10-02	$14.25	$3,885,393,767	14 / 14
2026-10-03	$14.25	$3,888,870,711	14 / 14
2026-10-04	$14.25	$3,888,870,711	14 / 14
2026-10-05	$14.25	$3,888,870,711	14 / 14
2026-10-06	$14.26	$3,903,922,184	14 / 14
2026-10-07	$14.29	$3,907,432,655	14 / 14
2026-10-08	$14.24	$3,910,697,644	14 / 13
2026-10-09	$14.24	$3,917,202,584	14 / 13
2026-10-10	$14.24	$3,917,202,584	14 / 13
2026-10-11	$14.24	$3,917,202,584	14 / 13
2026-10-12	$14.24	$3,917,202,584	14 / 13
2026-10-13	$14.24	$3,917,202,584	14 / 13
2026-10-14	$14.24	$3,917,202,584	14 / 13
2026-10-15	$14.24	$3,917,202,584	14 / 13
2026-10-16	$14.24	$3,928,951,642	14 / 13
2026-10-17	$14.24	$3,928,951,642	14 / 13
2026-10-18	$14.24	$3,928,951,642	14 / 13
2026-10-19	$14.24	$3,928,951,642	14 / 13
2026-10-20	$14.24	$3,928,951,642	14 / 13
2026-10-21	$14.24	$3,928,951,642	14 / 13
2026-10-22	$14.24	$3,928,951,642	14 / 13
2026-10-23	$14.24	$3,928,951,642	14 / 13
2026-10-24	$14.24	$3,928,951,642	14 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	9	3
2026-06-01	9	10	3
2026-07-01	13	10	2
2026-08-01	13	7	2
2026-09-01	14	7	1
2026-10-01	14	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 15 · prior Jul 13

$475.00 → $410.00-13.7%

Stifel NicolausOct 8 · prior Jul 31

$438.00 → $423.00-3.4%

$0$261.25$522.50

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Invest $1.8B in network and technology over 3 yearsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain operating margin near 4.5%Operating margin: 13.09%
Improve operating income to support marginsOperating income: $125.212M
Maintain revenue growth near 12% annuallyPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-33.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Saia outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SAIA is a network-expansion and operational-efficiency story in the freight sector. Its multi-year view remains intact, though the recent signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.

What's priced into Saia

SAIA trades at a notable premium to peers, while the valuation evidence describes expectations as broadly justified and the expectations gap as modest. The evidence points to limited valuation fragility, but does not show that the premium is supported under every sector outcome.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, the expanded terminal network may support revenue growth and operating efficiency as new capacity matures. Recent results show a better operating ratio, stronger contract renewals, and higher revenue per shipment excluding fuel surcharge, but financial performance is rated neutral and past earnings misses remain a near-term risk.

What Saia hinges on

The thesis depends on SAIA continuing to improve network utilization, cost control, and pricing while managing wage, fuel, and mix pressures. Near term, a guidance cut would be a negative signal; results and guidance from ODFL, XPO, and KNX could also indicate whether sector conditions are strengthening or weakening.