Landstar System (LSTR)

NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$165.79-2.13%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Landstar System’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.66 → 7.69 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-27
Revenue	—	1.48B
EPS	—	1.677
Annual ending 2026-12-27
Revenue	—	5.6B
EPS	—	5.942
Annual ending 2027-12-27
Revenue	—	6.28B
EPS	—	7.688

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend growth	A supporting condition in Landstar System's published investment case. The stated target is Dividend per share >= $0.40.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.35 in FY26	Dividend per share: $0.40 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.40. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20260.4 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4342b9a8-9923-46b6-a61c-97773843e9de. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income stability or growth	Cost management efforts aim to improve operating income despite recent challenges.	Broken	Operating income falls below $50M next 4 quarters	Operating income: $66.228M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $56M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202666,228,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4342b9a8-9923-46b6-a61c-97773843e9de. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above consensus	A primary condition in Landstar System's published investment case. The stated target is >=13% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY26	Revenue growth: 18.23% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=13% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202618.233787 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4342b9a8-9923-46b6-a61c-97773843e9de. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.69

$7.47 → $7.69 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.28B

$5.83B → $6.28B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.47	$5,829,707,139	12 / 11
2026-07-25	$7.47	$5,829,707,139	12 / 11
2026-07-26	$7.49	$5,829,707,139	12 / 11
2026-07-27	$7.49	$5,829,707,139	12 / 11
2026-07-28	$7.49	$5,829,707,139	12 / 11
2026-07-29	$7.49	$5,829,707,139	12 / 11
2026-07-30	$7.65	$6,166,978,572	12 / 11
2026-07-31	$7.65	$6,166,978,572	12 / 12
2026-08-01	$7.65	$6,166,978,572	12 / 12
2026-08-02	$7.65	$6,166,978,572	12 / 12
2026-08-03	$7.65	$6,166,978,572	12 / 12
2026-08-04	$7.65	$6,166,978,572	12 / 12
2026-08-05	$7.65	$6,166,978,572	12 / 12
2026-08-06	$7.65	$6,166,978,572	12 / 12
2026-08-07	$7.66	$6,212,200,672	12 / 12
2026-08-08	$7.66	$6,212,200,672	12 / 12
2026-08-09	$7.66	$6,212,200,672	12 / 12
2026-08-10	$7.66	$6,212,200,672	12 / 12
2026-08-12	$7.66	$6,212,200,672	12 / 12
2026-08-13	$7.66	$6,212,200,672	12 / 12
2026-08-14	$7.66	$6,212,200,672	12 / 12
2026-08-15	$7.66	$6,212,200,672	12 / 12
2026-08-16	$7.66	$6,212,200,672	12 / 12
2026-08-17	$7.66	$6,212,200,672	12 / 12
2026-08-18	$7.66	$6,212,200,672	12 / 12
2026-08-19	$7.66	$6,212,200,672	12 / 12
2026-08-20	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-08-21	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-08-22	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-08-23	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-08-24	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-08-25	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-08-26	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-08-27	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-08-28	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-08-29	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-08-30	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-08-31	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-01	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-02	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-03	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-04	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-05	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-06	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-07	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-08	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-09	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-10	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-11	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-12	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-13	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-14	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-15	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-16	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-17	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-18	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-19	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-20	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-21	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-22	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-23	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-24	$7.66	$6,212,199,305	12 / 12
2026-09-25	$7.67	$6,222,486,105	12 / 12
2026-09-26	$7.67	$6,222,486,105	12 / 12
2026-09-27	$7.67	$6,222,486,105	12 / 12
2026-09-28	$7.67	$6,222,486,105	12 / 12
2026-09-29	$7.67	$6,222,486,105	12 / 12
2026-09-30	$7.69	$6,222,486,105	12 / 12
2026-10-01	$7.69	$6,222,486,105	12 / 12
2026-10-02	$7.69	$6,222,486,105	12 / 12
2026-10-03	$7.67	$6,222,486,105	12 / 12
2026-10-04	$7.67	$6,220,806,105	12 / 12
2026-10-05	$7.67	$6,220,806,105	12 / 12
2026-10-06	$7.70	$6,242,006,002	12 / 12
2026-10-07	$7.67	$6,236,280,702	12 / 12
2026-10-08	$7.67	$6,263,874,036	12 / 12
2026-10-09	$7.69	$6,273,211,179	12 / 11
2026-10-10	$7.69	$6,273,211,179	13 / 11
2026-10-11	$7.69	$6,273,211,179	13 / 11
2026-10-12	$7.69	$6,273,211,179	13 / 11
2026-10-13	$7.69	$6,273,211,179	13 / 11
2026-10-14	$7.69	$6,273,211,179	13 / 11
2026-10-15	$7.69	$6,273,211,179	13 / 11
2026-10-16	$7.69	$6,277,988,512	13 / 11
2026-10-17	$7.69	$6,277,988,512	13 / 11
2026-10-18	$7.69	$6,277,988,512	13 / 11
2026-10-19	$7.69	$6,277,988,512	13 / 11
2026-10-20	$7.69	$6,277,988,512	13 / 11
2026-10-21	$7.69	$6,277,988,512	13 / 11
2026-10-22	$7.69	$6,277,988,512	13 / 11
2026-10-23	$7.69	$6,277,988,512	13 / 11
2026-10-24	$7.69	$6,277,988,512	13 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	13	3
2026-06-01	2	13	2
2026-07-01	3	13	4
2026-08-01	4	13	3
2026-09-01	4	12	3
2026-10-01	4	12	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 7 · prior Apr 29

$190.00 → $175.00-7.9%

Wells FargoOct 6 · prior Jun 5

$240.00 → $225.00-6.3%

$0$132.00$264.00

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend growthDividend per share: $0.40 per share
Operating income stability or growthPublished status: Broken
Revenue growth at or above consensusPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Landstar System outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a durable compounder with a focus on growth and profitability. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance and management's commitment to growth and dividends.

What's priced into Landstar System

The market seems to have priced in a premium valuation compared to peers, reflecting expectations of continued growth. The current valuation appears stretched, suggesting that investors are anticipating robust future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with its priorities, showing strong revenue and operating income growth. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings expectations, which has occurred in recent quarters.

What Landstar System hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like UPS, FDX, and EXPD. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support LSTR's growth; conversely, any negative guidance from them could impact LSTR's momentum.