Old Dominion (ODFL)

NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-10-15

$187.72-0.61%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Old Dominion’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.65 → 6.73 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage capital spending efficiently	A supporting condition in Old Dominion's published investment case. The stated target is <= $265 million.	Broken	Capex exceeds $300 million without revenue growth	Capital expenditures: $77.037M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: <= $265 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202677,037,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain pricing power and market share amid Amazon threats	A primary condition in Old Dominion's published investment case. The stated target is Stable or improving pricing and market share.	Intact	Significant loss of market share or forced price cuts	Qualitative: 4.9% GRI pull-forward & yield discipline vs stable pricing target News confirms 4.9% GRI acceleration, Q2 earnings beat, and margin gains despite volume headwinds. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Meet or exceed EPS estimates	It has beaten earnings estimates in the last two quarters, with EPS of $1.14 and $1.09.	Intact	EPS falls below $5.47 in FY26 or fails to grow next year	Diluted EPS: $1.68 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$6.37 EPS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20261.68 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3f4cf3ef-789c-4bbe-9fc6-390731e7f8a9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain positive revenue growth near consensus	A primary condition in Old Dominion's published investment case. The stated target is >=9% YoY revenue growth.	Improving	YoY revenue growth falls below 5% next year	Revenue growth: 10.39% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=9% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202610.391241 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3f4cf3ef-789c-4bbe-9fc6-390731e7f8a9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.307B in 2025-Q4 to $1.554B in 2026-Q2, operating income increased from $304M to $465M, and diluted EPS rose from $1.09 to $1.68. Management consistently emphasizes profitable revenue growth and market share gains, and the financials show delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.73

$6.51 → $6.73 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.45B

$6.34B → $6.45B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.51	$6,341,292,411	16 / 15
2026-07-25	$6.44	$6,336,201,440	19 / 20
2026-07-26	$6.44	$6,336,201,440	19 / 20
2026-07-27	$6.44	$6,336,201,440	19 / 20
2026-07-28	$6.53	$6,341,292,411	16 / 15
2026-07-29	$6.53	$6,341,292,411	16 / 15
2026-07-30	$6.59	$6,346,105,978	14 / 14
2026-07-31	$6.61	$6,345,933,920	14 / 14
2026-08-01	$6.61	$6,345,933,920	14 / 14
2026-08-02	$6.57	$6,350,983,100	19 / 20
2026-08-03	$6.63	$6,356,565,499	15 / 14
2026-08-04	$6.57	$6,350,983,100	19 / 20
2026-08-05	$6.63	$6,356,565,499	15 / 14
2026-08-06	$6.58	$6,355,233,100	19 / 20
2026-08-07	$6.64	$6,359,260,304	16 / 15
2026-08-08	$6.59	$6,353,549,700	19 / 20
2026-08-09	$6.59	$6,353,549,700	19 / 20
2026-08-10	$6.64	$6,359,260,304	16 / 15
2026-08-12	$6.59	$6,353,549,700	19 / 20
2026-08-13	$6.64	$6,359,260,304	16 / 15
2026-08-14	$6.64	$6,359,260,304	16 / 15
2026-08-15	$6.64	$6,359,260,304	16 / 15
2026-08-16	$6.64	$6,359,260,304	16 / 15
2026-08-17	$6.64	$6,359,260,304	16 / 15
2026-08-18	$6.64	$6,359,260,304	16 / 15
2026-08-19	$6.64	$6,359,260,304	16 / 15
2026-08-20	$6.64	$6,379,309,886	16 / 15
2026-08-21	$6.64	$6,379,309,886	16 / 15
2026-08-22	$6.64	$6,379,309,886	16 / 15
2026-08-23	$6.64	$6,379,309,886	16 / 15
2026-08-24	$6.64	$6,379,309,886	16 / 15
2026-08-25	$6.64	$6,379,309,886	16 / 15
2026-08-26	$6.64	$6,379,309,886	16 / 15
2026-08-27	$6.64	$6,379,309,886	16 / 15
2026-08-28	$6.64	$6,379,309,886	16 / 15
2026-08-29	$6.64	$6,379,309,886	16 / 15
2026-08-30	$6.64	$6,379,309,886	16 / 15
2026-08-31	$6.64	$6,379,309,886	16 / 15
2026-09-01	$6.64	$6,379,309,886	16 / 15
2026-09-02	$6.64	$6,379,309,886	16 / 15
2026-09-03	$6.65	$6,379,309,886	16 / 15
2026-09-04	$6.65	$6,379,309,886	15 / 15
2026-09-05	$6.65	$6,382,028,610	15 / 15
2026-09-06	$6.65	$6,380,805,298	15 / 15
2026-09-07	$6.65	$6,380,805,298	15 / 15
2026-09-08	$6.65	$6,380,805,298	15 / 15
2026-09-09	$6.66	$6,385,320,116	15 / 15
2026-09-10	$6.66	$6,385,554,110	15 / 15
2026-09-11	$6.65	$6,385,553,010	16 / 16
2026-09-12	$6.65	$6,385,553,010	16 / 16
2026-09-13	$6.65	$6,385,553,010	16 / 16
2026-09-14	$6.65	$6,385,553,010	16 / 16
2026-09-15	$6.65	$6,385,553,010	16 / 16
2026-09-16	$6.65	$6,385,553,010	16 / 16
2026-09-17	$6.65	$6,385,553,010	16 / 16
2026-09-18	$6.65	$6,385,553,010	16 / 16
2026-09-19	$6.65	$6,385,553,010	16 / 16
2026-09-20	$6.65	$6,385,553,010	16 / 16
2026-09-21	$6.65	$6,385,553,010	16 / 16
2026-09-22	$6.65	$6,385,553,010	16 / 16
2026-09-23	$6.65	$6,385,553,010	16 / 16
2026-09-24	$6.65	$6,385,553,010	16 / 16
2026-09-25	$6.65	$6,385,553,010	16 / 16
2026-09-26	$6.67	$6,385,553,010	16 / 16
2026-09-27	$6.67	$6,385,553,010	16 / 16
2026-09-28	$6.67	$6,385,553,010	16 / 16
2026-09-29	$6.69	$6,385,553,010	16 / 16
2026-09-30	$6.69	$6,385,553,010	16 / 15
2026-10-01	$6.70	$6,391,740,651	16 / 15
2026-10-02	$6.70	$6,391,740,651	16 / 15
2026-10-03	$6.71	$6,406,105,651	16 / 15
2026-10-04	$6.71	$6,406,105,651	16 / 15
2026-10-05	$6.71	$6,406,105,651	16 / 15
2026-10-06	$6.72	$6,431,680,290	16 / 15
2026-10-07	$6.73	$6,438,832,922	16 / 15
2026-10-08	$6.73	$6,439,748,167	16 / 15
2026-10-09	$6.73	$6,447,816,242	16 / 15
2026-10-10	$6.73	$6,447,816,242	16 / 15
2026-10-11	$6.73	$6,447,816,242	16 / 15
2026-10-12	$6.73	$6,447,816,242	16 / 15
2026-10-13	$6.73	$6,447,816,242	16 / 15
2026-10-14	$6.73	$6,447,816,242	16 / 15
2026-10-15	$6.73	$6,447,816,242	16 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	13	3
2026-06-01	8	13	4
2026-07-01	10	12	4
2026-08-01	9	12	4
2026-09-01	10	12	3
2026-10-01	10	14	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Stifel NicolausOct 8 · prior Jul 30

$263.00 → $230.00-12.5%

Truist FinancialOct 7

$230.00New observation · no comparable prior

BMO CapitalOct 7 · prior Jun 4

$230.00 → $235.00+2.2%

SusquehannaOct 2 · prior Jul 14

$228.00 → $202.00-11.4%

$0$144.65$289.30

1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage capital spending efficientlyPublished status: Broken
Meet or exceed EPS estimatesDiluted EPS: $1.68 per share
Sustain positive revenue growth near consensusRevenue growth: 10.39%

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Old Dominion outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable company with a focus on generating profitable revenue growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, but faces challenges from sector dynamics.

What's priced into Old Dominion

The market appears to have priced in a stretched valuation compared to peers, reflecting a premium. There is a low expectations gap, indicating that investors are not overly optimistic about future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with priorities like profitable revenue growth and increasing dividends, though capital expenditure management shows mixed results. The near-term risk of missing earnings is low, but recent history and industry trends warrant caution.

What Old Dominion hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like XPO, KNX, and SAIA. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support ODFL's growth. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact ODFL's outlook.