Werner Enterprises (WERN)

NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$28.79-1.34%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Werner Enterprises’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-4.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.26 → 2.15 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	944.25M
EPS	—	0.413
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.66B
EPS	—	0.8
Net capital expenditure	$215M–$250M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.95B
EPS	—	2.154

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Continue share repurchases to support shareholder returns	Share buybacks show good capital use.	Intact	Share repurchases stop or are cut significantly	Buyback active vs maintain target New share repurchase authorization announced in August 2025; recent 8-K filings confirm ongoing capital allocation and credit facility updates. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain CAPEX between $185M and $225M in 2026	A supporting condition in Werner Enterprises's published investment case. The stated target is $185M to $225M.	Broken	CAPEX falls below $185M or exceeds $225M in 2026	Capital expenditures: $29.024M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $185M to $225M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202629,024,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Legal risks reduced by court rulings	The Texas court ruling cuts legal risks.	Improving	New large legal liabilities or losses arise	0 new liabilities vs 0 target June 2026 court ruling reduced liabilities. No new legal risks reported in recent news or events. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of at least 14% YoY	A primary condition in Werner Enterprises's published investment case. The stated target is >=14% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year	Revenue growth: 24% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=14% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202624.003118 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 34e9809a-203c-47d3-a6fc-a01eef66a4cb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.15

$2.13 → $2.15 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.95B

$3.91B → $3.95B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.13	$3,910,628,290	16 / 13
2026-07-25	$2.14	$3,911,142,020	16 / 13
2026-07-26	$2.14	$3,911,142,020	16 / 13
2026-07-27	$2.14	$3,911,142,020	16 / 13
2026-07-28	$2.15	$3,916,696,166	9 / 10
2026-07-29	$2.15	$3,915,103,121	9 / 10
2026-07-30	$2.18	$3,876,824,331	9 / 10
2026-07-31	$2.18	$3,876,607,715	9 / 10
2026-08-01	$2.18	$3,876,607,715	9 / 10
2026-08-02	$2.18	$3,876,588,570	16 / 14
2026-08-03	$2.18	$3,876,588,570	16 / 14
2026-08-04	$2.18	$3,876,588,570	16 / 14
2026-08-05	$2.18	$3,876,588,570	16 / 14
2026-08-06	$2.18	$3,876,607,715	9 / 10
2026-08-08	$2.18	$3,876,607,715	10 / 10
2026-08-09	$2.18	$3,876,607,715	10 / 10
2026-08-10	$2.18	$3,876,588,570	16 / 14
2026-08-12	$2.18	$3,876,607,715	10 / 10
2026-08-13	$2.18	$3,876,588,570	16 / 14
2026-08-14	$2.18	$3,876,607,715	10 / 10
2026-08-15	$2.18	$3,876,607,715	10 / 10
2026-08-16	$2.18	$3,876,607,715	10 / 10
2026-08-17	$2.18	$3,876,607,715	10 / 10
2026-08-18	$2.18	$3,876,607,715	10 / 10
2026-08-19	$2.18	$3,876,607,715	10 / 10
2026-08-20	$2.18	$3,876,607,715	10 / 10
2026-08-21	$2.18	$3,876,607,715	10 / 10
2026-08-22	$2.18	$3,876,607,715	10 / 10
2026-08-23	$2.18	$3,876,607,715	10 / 10
2026-08-24	$2.18	$3,876,607,715	10 / 10
2026-08-25	$2.18	$3,876,607,715	10 / 10
2026-08-26	$2.18	$3,876,607,715	10 / 10
2026-08-27	$2.18	$3,876,607,715	10 / 10
2026-08-28	$2.18	$3,876,607,715	10 / 10
2026-08-29	$2.25	$3,895,803,521	10 / 10
2026-08-30	$2.25	$3,895,803,521	9 / 10
2026-08-31	$2.25	$3,895,803,521	9 / 10
2026-09-01	$2.25	$3,895,803,521	9 / 10
2026-09-02	$2.25	$3,895,803,521	9 / 10
2026-09-03	$2.25	$3,895,803,521	9 / 10
2026-09-04	$2.25	$3,895,803,521	9 / 10
2026-09-05	$2.25	$3,895,803,521	9 / 10
2026-09-06	$2.25	$3,895,803,521	9 / 10
2026-09-07	$2.25	$3,895,803,521	9 / 10
2026-09-08	$2.25	$3,895,803,521	9 / 10
2026-09-09	$2.25	$3,895,803,521	9 / 10
2026-09-10	$2.25	$3,895,803,521	9 / 10
2026-09-11	$2.25	$3,895,803,521	9 / 10
2026-09-12	$2.25	$3,895,803,521	9 / 10
2026-09-13	$2.26	$3,900,205,605	9 / 10
2026-09-14	$2.26	$3,900,205,605	9 / 10
2026-09-15	$2.26	$3,900,205,605	9 / 10
2026-09-16	$2.26	$3,900,205,605	9 / 10
2026-09-17	$2.26	$3,900,205,605	9 / 10
2026-09-18	$2.26	$3,900,205,605	9 / 10
2026-09-19	$2.26	$3,900,205,605	9 / 10
2026-09-20	$2.26	$3,900,205,605	9 / 10
2026-09-21	$2.26	$3,900,205,605	9 / 10
2026-09-22	$2.26	$3,900,205,605	9 / 10
2026-09-23	$2.26	$3,900,205,605	9 / 10
2026-09-24	$2.26	$3,896,974,836	9 / 10
2026-09-25	$2.26	$3,896,974,836	9 / 10
2026-09-26	$2.26	$3,896,974,836	9 / 10
2026-09-27	$2.26	$3,896,974,836	9 / 10
2026-09-28	$2.26	$3,896,974,836	9 / 10
2026-09-29	$2.26	$3,896,974,836	9 / 10
2026-09-30	$2.26	$3,896,974,836	9 / 10
2026-10-01	$2.26	$3,896,974,836	9 / 10
2026-10-02	$2.26	$3,896,974,836	9 / 10
2026-10-03	$2.26	$3,896,974,836	9 / 10
2026-10-04	$2.27	$3,906,848,297	9 / 10
2026-10-05	$2.26	$3,906,848,297	9 / 10
2026-10-06	$2.26	$3,906,848,297	9 / 10
2026-10-07	$2.26	$3,905,292,466	9 / 10
2026-10-08	$2.26	$3,905,292,466	9 / 10
2026-10-09	$2.24	$3,918,220,049	9 / 10
2026-10-10	$2.24	$3,919,676,107	9 / 10
2026-10-11	$2.24	$3,919,676,107	9 / 10
2026-10-12	$2.24	$3,919,676,107	9 / 10
2026-10-13	$2.24	$3,919,676,107	9 / 10
2026-10-14	$2.24	$3,919,676,107	9 / 10
2026-10-15	$2.23	$3,926,558,746	9 / 10
2026-10-16	$2.23	$3,933,262,207	9 / 10
2026-10-17	$2.23	$3,933,262,207	9 / 10
2026-10-18	$2.23	$3,933,262,207	9 / 10
2026-10-19	$2.23	$3,933,262,207	9 / 10
2026-10-20	$2.19	$3,945,197,161	9 / 10
2026-10-21	$2.18	$3,951,150,952	8 / 9
2026-10-22	$2.15	$3,951,150,952	8 / 10
2026-10-23	$2.15	$3,951,150,952	8 / 10
2026-10-24	$2.15	$3,951,150,952	8 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	10	3
2026-06-01	2	10	3
2026-07-01	5	11	3
2026-08-01	5	9	2
2026-09-01	5	9	2
2026-10-01	5	10	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 20 · prior Oct 20

$32.00 → $35.00+9.4%

Robert W. BairdOct 20 · prior Jun 17

$43.00 → $32.00-25.6%

BarclaysOct 20

$38.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSOct 13 · prior Jul 29

$40.00 → $35.00-12.5%

Stifel NicolausOct 8 · prior Jul 13

$40.00 → $42.00+5.0%

$0$23.65$47.30

2 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain CAPEX between $185M and $225M in 2026Published status: Broken
Revenue growth of at least 14% YoYRevenue growth: 24%

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Werner Enterprises outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical trucking business with an execution-driven recovery thesis, not a steady compounder. The thesis is on watch: management is making progress on restructuring and fleet growth, but recent performance is below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Werner Enterprises

Valuation evidence is mixed: WERN is described as cheap versus peers, yet it also carries a 35% premium versus peers, and the model has low confidence. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding, while the priced-in assessment is tagged justified and fragility is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings in October were in line, but erratic recent surprises, elevated risk, and a sector headwind leave results exposed to weaker conditions. Over the multi-year view, One-Way Truckload revenue per truck and Dedicated fleet growth show progress, though Q2 operating income fell sharply year over year in both TTS and consolidated results. Higher capital spending supports fleet renewal, but the full-year impact is not yet known.

What Werner Enterprises hinges on

The next call matters: a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, especially given the tendency for estimates to be reduced after cuts. Sector signals also matter, since continued strong results and guidance from ODFL, XPO, and KNX could support the industry backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.