Reading VHI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VHI free→Reading VHI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VHI free→NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 82% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. If VHI cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.89. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 VHI trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $85 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 82% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.02x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -200.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$151.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$450.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,862.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how Valhi is doing financially and operationally. Investors want to see signs of improvement.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows a big increase in net income from the last quarter.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a decline in net income compared to the previous quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VHI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The registrant hereby furnishes the information set forth in its press release entitled “Valhi Reports First Quarter 2026 Results” that the registrant issued on May 7, 2026, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The press release the registrant furnishes as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report is not deemed “filed” for purposes of section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended,…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VHI Valhi, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CBT Cabot Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CC Chemours | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 11 of 100 | full | high |
ASH Ashland Global | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | fair | moderate |
OLN Olin Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show a recovery in the materials sector. This could help Valhi's finances.
Confirms:Revenue growth for Valhi turns positive year over year in the next quarter.
Disproves:Revenue growth has been negative for two quarters in a row.
of this report. Proposal 2: Say-on-Pay, Nonbinding Advisory Vote Approving Executive Compensation The registrant’s stockholders adopted a resolution, on a nonbinding advisory basis, approving the compensation of the registrant’s named executive officers as described in the registrant’s 2026 proxy statement. The resolution received the approval from 93.9% of the shares eligible to vote at the annual meeting.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The registrant hereby furnishes the information set forth in its press release entitled “Valhi Reports Fourth Quarter 2025 Results” that the registrant issued on March 10, 2026, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The press release the registrant furnishes as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report is not deemed “filed” for purposes of section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amend…
Regulation FD Disclosure: The registrant hereby furnishes the information set forth in its press release entitled “Valhi Declares Quarterly Dividend ” that the registrant also issued on March 5, 2026, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The press release the registrant furnishes as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report is not “filed” for purposes of section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 9, 2025, Patty S. Brinda, vice president and controller of the registrant, provided notice to the registrant that, effective as of December 31, 2025, she will retire as an officer of the registrant and an employee of Contran Corporation (“Contran”), the privately-held parent corporation of the registrant. Following such retirement n…