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Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$14.80+2.85%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is not assessable since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% above where it trades; the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern suggests potential issues due to weak financials. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Chemicals
- Market cap
- $1.01B
- Employees
- 642
- IPO date
- 2004-12-16
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.80. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$32.74consensus
Range $30.24 – $34.98
vs price: -55% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$43.73consensus
Range $43.73 – $43.73
vs price: -66% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $15 GPRE trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $32 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
0.5x
peer 1.1x · own history —
Premium
0.4x peer
Growth the price needs
-40%
our forecast -20%
Our fair value
$32.49
range $29.85 – $34.66
WhyEarnings too small for P/EPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 40% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -20%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
45th pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -8.19x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatile15 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Materials names rated volatile grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=235).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +108.5% / 30d, n=4for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.31 → $0.64 (+108.5% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: materials is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme copper/electrification.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$233.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$584.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,117.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for Q2 earnings report on August 10, 2026
Why it matters: The Q2 earnings report will provide insights into Green Plains' performance and financial health.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows better financial numbers than before. This is compared to past quarters.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows ongoing losses. It also shows worse financial numbers.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2021-10-274y agoBenzinga
New board member may enhance strategic direction.
ReinforcesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Materials sector revenue growth turning positive
- Watch for trends in unemployment claims impacting demand
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like DOW, CE, and OLN keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Materials sector momentum should keep lifting GPRE and other Materials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If GPRE beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a very large beat off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If GPRE reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-07), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like DOW, CE, and OLN start missing or guiding lower, the Materials tailwind helping GPRE and other Materials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits GPRE and other Materials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Green Plains Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+3.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.