Reading CBT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CBT free→Reading CBT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CBT free→NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with CBT trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $88.30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $89 CBT trades at 13× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $133 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 33% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.35x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $1.65. 0 raised, 3 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 21.2% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$116.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$284.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,882.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'favorable'.
As of June 16, 2026, the signal label changed, indicating a shift to a more favorable outlook. Risk fell, suggesting a decrease in perceived volatility. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, which may impact performance. The valuation is described as cheap, with peer multiples implying a price significantly above current trading levels.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps with capital use and returns to shareholders. Weak cash flow may slow growth.
Confirms:Operating cash flow exceeds $100 million in Q3.
Disproves:Operating cash flow drops below $70 million in Q3.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CBT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 12, 2026, Cabot Corporation (the “Company”) entered into a $1.3 billion unsecured revolving credit agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with a syndicate of lenders arranged by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and JPMorgan SE, as Administrative Agents, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Citibank, N.A., U.S. Bank, National Association and PNC Capital Markets LLC, as Joint Lead Bookrunners and Joint Lead Arrangers, Bank of America, N.A., ING Bank N.V. Dublin Bra…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CBT Cabot Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CC Chemours | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 11 of 100 | full | high |
ASH Ashland Global | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | fair | moderate |
OLN Olin Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
HUN Huntsman Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | fair | elevated |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Cabot Corp aims to maintain strong cash flow from operations to support its financial health.
Cabot Corp is optimizing its capital structure by entering a new $1.3 billion credit agreement.
Cabot Corp is focusing on stabilizing its operating income amid fluctuating market conditions.
Why it matters: Trends in EBIT for Reinforcement Materials indicate demand and pricing health. A decline could signal deeper issues in the segment.
Confirms:Reinforcement Materials EBIT drops more than 20% from last year in Q3.
Disproves:Reinforcement Materials EBIT stays the same or grows from last year in Q3.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Cabot Corporation issued a press release announcing operating results for its fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant . The information set forth above under
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. Concurrently with entering into the Credit Agreement, on May 12, 2026, the Company terminated (i) its $1 billion revolving credit agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and the other lenders party thereto, which, by its terms, was scheduled to mature on August 6, 2027, and (ii) its €300 million revolving credit agreement with PNC Bank, National Association, and the other lenders party thereto, which, by its terms, was also scheduled to mature…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 3, 2026, Cabot Corporation issued a press release announcing operating results for its fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.