Reading OLN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OLN free→Reading OLN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, OLN is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 61% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $23.80. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $24 OLN trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $61 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $22–$37. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 61% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated weak grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=1088).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.76x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.09 → $0.09 (+200.6% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 14% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$192.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$513.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,145.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Olin can recover from a net income decline. It is crucial for assessing financial health.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings show a net income improvement from -$83M in Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows continued net income decline or losses.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OLN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Merger Agreement On June 15, 2026, Olin Corporation, a Virginia corporation (“ Olin ” or, with reference to the post-closing period, the “ Combined Company ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Huntsman Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“ Huntsman ”), Olympus Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a direct wholly owned subsidiary of Olin (“ First Merger Sub ”), and Hook Merger Sub LLC, a Delaware l…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$22.00 – $37.00 (median $29.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-05-13
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OLN Olin Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CBT Cabot Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CC Chemours | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | full | high |
ASH Ashland Global | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HUN Huntsman Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | high |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on reducing structural costs through the Beyond250 initiative to improve financial performance.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Beyond250 initiative achieved a $44 million reduction in structural costs in 2025. Despite this, the financials show a net loss of $83 million in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in overall profitability.
“CEO: 'Our Beyond250 structural cost actions delivered favorable operating cost performance.'”
“CEO: 'We have begun to see benefits from our Beyond250 initiative, realizing a $44 million reduction in structural costs in 2025.'”
“CEO: 'Beyond250 initiative to reduce structural costs, including the recent decision to close our Guarujá, Brazil Epoxy production site.'”
Continue the policy of paying a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share to shareholders.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Olin declared a dividend of $0.20 per share for the 398th consecutive quarter, maintaining its commitment to shareholder returns. Despite this, the company reported a net loss of $83 million in 2026-Q1, indicating financial challenges.
“Olin's Board declared a dividend of $0.20 on each share of Olin common stock.”
Realize over $400 million in cost synergies and integration benefits from the merger with Huntsman.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Olin announced a merger with Huntsman, targeting over $400 million in cost synergies. The merger aims to enhance financial performance, but the current financials show a net loss of $83 million in 2026-Q1, indicating challenges ahead.
“Olin and Huntsman have identified more than $400 million of cost synergies and integration benefits.”
Olin Corporation is implementing a new long-term incentive plan for 2026.
Why it matters: This range indicates recovery in earnings after a tough first quarter. It shows if cost actions are working.
Confirms:In Q2 2026, adjusted EBITDA was $200 million or more.
Disproves:In Q2 2026, adjusted EBITDA was below $160 million.
Why it matters: Olin pays dividends to show it cares about its shareholders. Missing a payment could mean bigger money problems.
Confirms:Olin pays the declared dividend of $0.20 per share on June 12, 2026.
Disproves:Olin fails to pay the declared dividend on June 12, 2026.
Why it matters: This plan aims to improve talent retention and align management with long-term goals. Its success can impact future performance.
Confirms:Olin reports positive outcomes from the 2026 Long Term Incentive Plan in the next earnings call.
Disproves:Olin shows it has problems with the 2026 Long Term Incentive Plan.
Why it matters: Rising raw material costs can hurt margins. It shows how external factors affect Olin's operations.
Confirms:Raw material costs stabilize or decline, easing pressure on margins.
Disproves:Raw material costs continue to rise significantly due to the Iran conflict.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Confirms:The dividend is paid as scheduled on June 12, 2026.
Disproves:The dividend payment is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: This segment's performance is critical for overall earnings. It shows if cost actions and demand are improving.
Confirms one read:Segment earnings turn positive after losses in Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:Segment losses continue or worsen in Q2 2026.
Regulation FD Disclosure On June 16, 2026, Olin Corporation, a Virginia corporation (“ Olin ”), and Huntsman Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“ Huntsman ”), issued a joint press release to announce the proposed combination of Olin and Huntsman in an all-stock merger of equals transaction pursuant to an Agreement and Plan of Merger entered into on June 15, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by r…
Other Events. Voting and Support Agreements On June 15, 2026, concurrently with the execution of the Merger Agreement, Olin, First Merger Sub and Second Merger Sub entered into a voting and support agreement (the “ Voting and Support Agreement ”) with Peter Huntsman and affiliated entities (collectively, the “ Holders ”), in their capacity as a stockholder of Huntsman, pursuant to which and subject to the conditions contained therein, each Holder has agreed, among other things, to vote all of…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Olin Corporation (“Olin”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. Attached as Exhibit 99.1, and incorporated by reference into this Item 2.02, is a copy of Olin’s press release dated May 7, 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) Olin Corporation 2026 Long Term Incentive Plan On April 30, 2026, Olin Corporation’s (the “Corporation”) shareholders approved the Olin Corporation 2026 Long Term Incentive Plan (the “2026 LTIP”) at the Corporation’s annual meeting of shareholders. The 2026 LTIP is effective immediately. The material terms of the 2026 LTIP were previously repor…
“Olin's Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.20 on each share of Olin common stock.”
“Olin's Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.20 on each share of Olin common stock.”
“Olin's Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.20 on each share of Olin common stock.”