Olin Corporation (OLN)
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$17.46-2.40%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Execute Beyond250 structural cost reductions: metric not reported.
Olin aims to cut $44 million in structural costs by 2025 through Beyond250. It plans over $400 million in cost synergies from the Huntsman merger. The company maintains a steady dividend of $0.20 per share. Analysts expect about 5% revenue growth next year.
Olin reported a net loss of $83 million in Q1 2026 and missed EPS estimates. The recent sharp share price drop reflects market doubts. Cost cuts and merger synergies may take longer to materialize. The chemical sector faces headwinds that could pressure earnings.
The stock trades about 54% below our fair value near $46, reflecting the company’s losses and risks. Analysts expect modest 5% revenue growth, which the market broadly prices in. Our fair value is well above the Street median, showing some optimism on turnaround potential.
Breaks if: dividend cut below $0.20 per share
Breaks if: cost synergies fall short of $400 million target
YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY27
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround play with a focus on improving operational efficiency and strategic mergers. The current thesis state reflects mixed management execution and a neutral financial performance, suggesting cautious optimism.
The market appears to have priced in a valuation that is cheap compared to peers, with a notable expectations gap. However, the overall valuation is justified given the current financial challenges and the company's recent losses.
Fundamentals may stabilize as management continues to execute on cost reduction initiatives and the merger with Huntsman progresses. However, there is an elevated risk due to recent financial performance falling below that of industry peers.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute the merger successfully. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and performance of sector bellwethers will be critical in shaping OLN's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss has pressured the outlook for OLN. Recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort, which is worth monitoring.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: structural cost reductions fall below $44 million by end 2025
In the next 1 to 3 years, OLN's performance will depend on effective management execution and favorable market conditions. Not investment advice.