Olin Corporation (OLN)

NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$15.66+0.77%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Olin Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-34.8% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.60 → 0.39 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EBITDA	$160M–$200Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.76B
EPS	—	-0.278
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.89B
EPS	—	-0.653
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.24B
EPS	—	0.389

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share	The company maintains a steady dividend of $0.20 per share.	Intact	dividend cut below $0.20 per share	Dividend per share: $0.20 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.2 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 59cd9be0-5fba-46a9-a414-0c219a17c87d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve $400M+ cost synergies in merger with Huntsman	It plans over $400 million in cost synergies from the Huntsman merger.	Intact	cost synergies fall short of $400 million target	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve ~5% revenue growth	A supporting condition in Olin Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= 5% YoY revenue growth.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY27	Revenue growth: -0.93% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 5% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026-0.932719 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 59cd9be0-5fba-46a9-a414-0c219a17c87d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Execute Beyond250 structural cost reductions	Olin aims to cut $44 million in structural costs by 2025 through Beyond250.	Under Pressure	structural cost reductions fall below $44 million by end 2025	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.39

$0.95 → $0.39 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.24B

$7.24B → $7.24B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.95	$7,244,084,690	5 / 14
2026-07-25	$0.95	$7,244,084,690	5 / 14
2026-07-26	$0.95	$7,244,084,690	5 / 14
2026-07-27	$0.95	$7,244,084,690	5 / 14
2026-07-28	$0.82	$7,276,555,270	6 / 10
2026-07-29	$0.82	$7,276,555,270	6 / 10
2026-07-30	$0.95	$7,244,084,690	5 / 14
2026-07-31	$0.89	$7,363,651,878	6 / 10
2026-08-01	$0.89	$7,363,651,878	6 / 10
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$7,309,158,270	4 / 13
2026-08-03	$0.89	$7,363,651,878	7 / 10
2026-08-04	$0.89	$7,363,651,878	7 / 10
2026-08-05	$0.79	$7,271,626,920	7 / 13
2026-08-06	$0.79	$7,271,626,920	7 / 13
2026-08-07	$0.89	$7,363,651,878	7 / 10
2026-08-08	$0.79	$7,253,989,540	7 / 13
2026-08-09	$0.79	$7,253,989,540	7 / 13
2026-08-10	$0.79	$7,253,989,540	7 / 13
2026-08-12	$0.89	$7,363,651,878	7 / 10
2026-08-13	$0.89	$7,363,651,878	7 / 10
2026-08-14	$0.89	$7,363,651,878	7 / 10
2026-08-15	$0.89	$7,363,651,878	7 / 10
2026-08-16	$0.89	$7,363,651,878	7 / 10
2026-08-17	$0.89	$7,363,651,878	7 / 10
2026-08-18	$0.89	$7,363,651,878	7 / 10
2026-08-19	$0.89	$7,363,651,878	7 / 10
2026-08-20	$0.80	$7,313,856,684	7 / 10
2026-08-21	$0.75	$7,320,570,928	7 / 10
2026-08-22	$0.75	$7,320,570,928	7 / 10
2026-08-23	$0.75	$7,320,570,928	7 / 10
2026-08-24	$0.75	$7,320,570,928	7 / 10
2026-08-25	$0.70	$7,324,856,684	6 / 10
2026-08-26	$0.70	$7,324,856,684	6 / 10
2026-08-27	$0.70	$7,324,856,684	6 / 10
2026-08-28	$0.70	$7,324,856,684	6 / 10
2026-08-29	$0.70	$7,324,856,684	6 / 10
2026-08-30	$0.70	$7,324,856,684	6 / 10
2026-08-31	$0.70	$7,324,856,684	6 / 10
2026-09-01	$0.70	$7,324,856,684	6 / 10
2026-09-02	$0.70	$7,324,856,684	6 / 10
2026-09-03	$0.70	$7,324,856,684	6 / 10
2026-09-04	$0.70	$7,324,856,684	6 / 10
2026-09-05	$0.70	$7,324,856,684	6 / 10
2026-09-06	$0.70	$7,324,856,684	6 / 10
2026-09-07	$0.70	$7,324,856,684	6 / 10
2026-09-08	$0.70	$7,324,856,684	6 / 10
2026-09-09	$0.70	$7,324,856,684	6 / 10
2026-09-10	$0.70	$7,324,856,684	6 / 10
2026-09-11	$0.70	$7,324,856,684	6 / 10
2026-09-12	$0.60	$7,314,098,478	6 / 11
2026-09-13	$0.60	$7,314,098,478	7 / 11
2026-09-14	$0.60	$7,314,098,478	7 / 11
2026-09-15	$0.60	$7,314,098,478	7 / 11
2026-09-16	$0.63	$7,302,013,242	7 / 11
2026-09-17	$0.63	$7,302,013,242	7 / 11
2026-09-18	$0.63	$7,302,013,242	7 / 11
2026-09-19	$0.63	$7,302,013,242	7 / 11
2026-09-20	$0.63	$7,302,013,242	7 / 11
2026-09-21	$0.63	$7,302,013,242	7 / 11
2026-09-22	$0.63	$7,302,013,242	7 / 11
2026-09-23	$0.60	$7,302,013,242	7 / 11
2026-09-24	$0.60	$7,302,013,242	7 / 11
2026-09-25	$0.60	$7,302,013,242	7 / 11
2026-09-26	$0.60	$7,302,013,242	7 / 11
2026-09-27	$0.60	$7,302,013,242	7 / 11
2026-09-28	$0.60	$7,302,013,242	7 / 11
2026-09-29	$0.59	$7,302,013,242	7 / 11
2026-09-30	$0.59	$7,302,013,242	7 / 11
2026-10-01	$0.56	$7,305,442,453	7 / 11
2026-10-02	$0.53	$7,271,854,396	6 / 11
2026-10-03	$0.53	$7,271,854,396	6 / 11
2026-10-04	$0.53	$7,271,854,396	6 / 11
2026-10-05	$0.53	$7,271,854,396	6 / 11
2026-10-06	$0.51	$7,273,655,267	6 / 11
2026-10-07	$0.51	$7,273,646,416	6 / 11
2026-10-08	$0.51	$7,273,646,416	6 / 11
2026-10-09	$0.51	$7,273,646,416	6 / 11
2026-10-10	$0.51	$7,273,646,416	6 / 11
2026-10-11	$0.51	$7,273,646,416	6 / 11
2026-10-12	$0.51	$7,273,646,416	6 / 11
2026-10-13	$0.51	$7,273,646,416	6 / 11
2026-10-14	$0.48	$7,273,646,416	6 / 11
2026-10-15	$0.48	$7,273,646,416	6 / 11
2026-10-16	$0.48	$7,273,646,416	6 / 11
2026-10-17	$0.48	$7,273,646,416	6 / 11
2026-10-18	$0.46	$7,273,634,473	6 / 11
2026-10-19	$0.46	$7,273,634,473	6 / 11
2026-10-20	$0.46	$7,273,634,473	6 / 11
2026-10-21	$0.39	$7,232,908,533	6 / 12
2026-10-22	$0.39	$7,236,508,533	5 / 12
2026-10-23	$0.39	$7,236,508,533	5 / 12
2026-10-24	$0.39	$7,236,508,533	5 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	11	1
2026-06-01	3	11	2
2026-07-01	2	11	1
2026-08-01	2	11	1
2026-09-01	2	12	1
2026-10-01	2	13	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 20 · prior May 11

$26.00 → $15.00-42.3%

RBC CapitalOct 13 · prior Aug 3

$20.00 → $16.00-20.0%

BarclaysOct 12

$18.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSOct 5 · prior May 13

$31.00 → $18.00-41.9%

Wells FargoOct 1 · prior Aug 3

$20.00 → $16.00-20.0%

Goldman SachsSep 30 · prior Aug 4

$20.00 → $18.00-10.0%

$0$17.05$34.10

0 raises · 5 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.20 per shareDividend per share: $0.20 per share
Achieve $400M+ cost synergies in merger with HuntsmanDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve ~5% revenue growthPublished status: Under Pressure
Execute Beyond250 structural cost reductionsPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-51.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Olin Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical chemicals business with a restructuring and merger component, not a steady earnings story. The long-term thesis remains in watch mode, with a recent signal shift from mixed to mildly favorable but elevated business risk.

What's priced into Olin Corporation

OLN is described as cheap versus peers, while the valuation model has low confidence and the expectations gap is slightly negative. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a strong market-mispricing case.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings remain hard to read: recent performance is neutral and below the industry cohort, though it has not freshly broken. Beyond250 has reduced structural costs and supported chemical-business improvements, while management has maintained quarterly dividends despite losses. The merger is progressing toward an expected first-half 2027 close, subject to regulatory approvals.

What Olin Corporation hinges on

The multi-year view depends in part on completing the Huntsman merger and sustaining cost improvements. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; results and guidance from DOW, DD, and CE may signal whether the sector backdrop is improving or weakening.