Reading ASH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ASH free→Reading ASH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ASH free→NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 5% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If ASH reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising, that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $64.59. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $65 ASH trades at 20× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $68 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $58–$75. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.47x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.10 → $1.10 (+0.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 7 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.2% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$137.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$301.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,417.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Dropping below this level shows weaker cash flow compared to earnings.
Confirms:Cash flow conversion rate reported below 50%.
Disproves:Cash flow conversion rate reported at or above 50%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ASH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 28, 2026 (such date, the “Closing Date”), Ashland Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Ashland”), entered into a Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) among Ashland, as a borrower, Ashland Industries Europe GmbH, a Gesellschaft mit beschränkter Haftung organized under the laws of Switzerland (the “Swiss Borrower”), as a borrower, each lender from time to time party thereto, The Bank of Nova Scotia, Houston Branch, as…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$58.00 – $75.00 (median $62.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-10
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ASH Ashland Global | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CBT Cabot Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CC Chemours | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | full | high |
OLN Olin Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
HUN Huntsman Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Ashland aims to achieve revenue between $1,835 million and $1,870 million for fiscal 2026.
Ashland targets Adjusted EBITDA between $385 million and $400 million for fiscal 2026.
Ashland aims to maintain a 50% free cash flow conversion rate of Adjusted EBITDA.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under “
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 15, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Ashland Inc. (the “Company”) increased the size of the Board from eight to nine directors and appointed Mr. Bertrand Loy to serve as an independent director on the Board, effective the same day. Mr. Loy was also named to the Audit Committee as well as the Governance and Nominating Committee o…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Ashland Inc. (“Ashland”) announced preliminary second quarter results, which are discussed in more detail in the news release (the “News Release”) attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K (“Form 8-K”) as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated herein by reference into this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 2, 2026, Ashland Inc. (“Ashland”) announced preliminary first quarter results, which are discussed in more detail in the news release (the “News Release”) attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K (“Form 8-K”) as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated herein by reference into this