Reading RYAM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RYAM free→Reading RYAM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RYAM free→NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 65% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, especially how bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.08 RYAM trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $27 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 66% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated weak grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=1088).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.03x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.30 → $-0.24 (+18.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$211.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$552.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,243.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how the company is doing and what the market is like.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows better financial results than before.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows continued losses or negative trends.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RYAM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 5, 2026, Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended March 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Item 2.02, including the accompanying exhibit, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “E…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RYAM Rayonier Advanced Materials, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 4 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CBT Cabot Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CC Chemours | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 11 of 100 | full | high |
ASH Ashland Global | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | moderate |
OLN Olin Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on disciplined execution and cash management to achieve positive free cash flow in 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Despite the focus on cash management, the company reported negative net income of -$81.58M in 2026-Q1, with cash from operating activities at $31.94M. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery so far.
“we continue to expect full-year EBITDA above 2025 levels”
“In 2026, our focus is sharpening around disciplined execution and cash. Our priorities are clear: deliver positive free cash flow...”
Aim to surpass 2025 EBITDA levels through operational improvements and strategic initiatives.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company reported a gross profit of -$7.59M in 2026-Q1, down from $37.02M in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows limited progress towards achieving higher EBITDA levels.
“we continue to expect full-year EBITDA above 2025 levels”
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (b) On April 16, 2026, Scott M. Sutton, who was then President and Chief Executive Officer of Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc. (“RYAM” or the “Company”), resigned as President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company. (c) On April 19, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company established an interim Office of the Chief Executive Officer to guide…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (b) On April 24, 2026, Scott M. Sutton resigned as a member of the Board of Directors of Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc. (the “Company”) and withdrew as a director nominee at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. Signature Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of l934, the registrant has duly caused this Report to…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 3, 2026, Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Item 2.02, including the accompanying exhibit, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934,…
Departure of Directors of Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On January 2, 2026, Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Scott Sutton as its Chief Executive Officer and President, effective as of January 5, 2026. The Company also announced Mr. Sutton’s appointment to the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”), effective January 5, 2026, as a Class III director. Mr. Sutton succeeds…