Reading LXU? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LXU free→Reading LXU? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LXU free→NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, contributing to elevated risk. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. The outlook hinges on whether LXU cuts guidance on the next call, which could negatively impact estimates. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $11.73. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $12 LXU trades at 16× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $11 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 10% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.06x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.58 → $0.46 (-20.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$242.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$486.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,069.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show the materials sector is recovering.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LXU yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Information. On May 28, 2026, LSB Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) determined that it would immediately begin the previously announced turnaround at its Pryor, Oklahoma facility, which was previously scheduled to commence in July 2026. Based on information currently available, the Company expects that the change in timing of the turnaround should not affect the expected duration or cost estimates for the turnaround. Forward-Looking Statements Statements in this Current Report on Form 8-…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LXU LSB Industries, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | full | elevated |
CBT Cabot Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CC Chemours | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 11 of 100 | full | high |
ASH Ashland Global | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | fair | moderate |
OLN Olin Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated volatile grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=235).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Initiate the previously announced turnaround at the Pryor, Oklahoma facility earlier than scheduled.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The company announced an immediate start to the turnaround at its Pryor, Oklahoma facility, which was initially scheduled for July 2026. No financial impact or progress metrics were provided in the current disclosures, indicating the priority is in its early stages.
“The company will immediately begin the previously announced turnaround at its Pryor, Oklahoma facility.”
Maintain EPS guidance of $0.27 for the first quarter of 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company provided EPS guidance of $0.27 for the first quarter of 2026, which aligns with the actual EPS reported for the period. This indicates that the company met its guidance expectations for the quarter.
Focus on improving operating income through operational efficiencies.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income increased from $10.5 million in 2025-Q2 to $23.2 million in 2026-Q1, showing significant improvement. This indicates that the company is delivering on its focus to enhance operational efficiencies and improve income.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show economic weakness. This could hurt LSB's business.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims stay below 250,000.
Why it matters: If the materials sector shows positive growth, it could benefit LSB Industries.
Confirms:The materials sector had revenue growth above 0% compared to last year.
Disproves:The materials sector had revenue growth below 0% compared to last year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. CEO One-Time Retention Award On April 24, 2026, the compensation committee (the “Compensation Committee”) of the board of directors of LSB Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) approved a one-time retention grant of 706,880 restricted stock units (“RSUs”) to Mark T. Behrman, the Company’s Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, under the Compan…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, LSB Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release to report its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. As previously announced, on April 30, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. (Eastern time) / 9:00 a.m. (Central time), the Company will hold a conference call broadcast live over the Internet to discuss the financial re…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Retirement of Director On March 30, 2026, Steven L. Packebush informed the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of LSB Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) of his decision to retire from the Board effective immediately. Mr. Packebush’s decision to retire was not because of any disagreement with the Company or its management on any matter relating to the Co…
Other Information. As previously disclosed, since 2016, LSB Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) has been involved in litigation with respect to engineering and procurement contracts related to the construction of the ammonia plant at the Company’s El Dorado, AR facility. On April 2, 2026 (the “Execution Date”) the Company, certain of the Company’s wholly owned subsidiaries, and Benham Constructors, LLC (f/k/a Leidos Constructors, LLC, f/k/a SAIC Constructors, LLC) (“Benham”) entered into a Settl…
“The company issued EPS guidance of $0.27 for the first quarter of 2026.”
“Operating income increased to $23.2 million in 2026-Q1.”
“Operating income was $26.7 million in 2025-Q4.”