Reading ASIX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ASIX free→Reading ASIX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ASIX free→NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $21.27. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $22 ASIX trades at 29× p/e — 1.4× the 20× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $29 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 24% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted 9.23x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.63 → $0.56 (-11.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$171.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$439.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,250.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision can change interest rates. This affects the economy and AdvanSix's market.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates or signals a hawkish stance.
Confirms the other:FOMC cuts interest rates or signals a dovish stance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ASIX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 8, 2026, AdvanSix Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ASIX AdvanSix, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CBT Cabot Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CC Chemours | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | full | high |
ASH Ashland Global | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | fair | moderate |
OLN Olin Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated volatile grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=235).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to reduce the pre-tax income impact of plant turnarounds to $17-$22 million in 2026.
Management continues to guide capital expenditures to be between $75 and $95 million for 2026.
The company has maintained a consistent dividend of $0.16 per share.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a shift in the declining materials sector. This could improve investor confidence in AdvanSix.
Confirms:AdvanSix reports positive revenue growth in its next earnings release on July 31, 2026.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains negative in the next earnings release.
Other Events. Dividend On May 8, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.16 per share on the Company's common stock. The dividend will be paid on June 2, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on May 19, 2026. The Company's announcement of the dividend is included in the press release furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 13, 2026, AdvanSix Inc. (the “Company”) announced that its Board of Directors has appointed Patrick C. Day as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective on April 27, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), to succeed Christopher Gramm who has been serving as Interim Chief Financial Officer. Effective as of the Effective Date, Mr. Gr…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 20, 2026, AdvanSix Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Other Events. Dividend On February 20, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.16 per share on the Company's common stock. The dividend will be paid on March 23, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on March 9, 2026. The Company's announcement of the dividend is included in the press release furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.