Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$15.64-0.89%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Green Plains raised EBITDA guidance to $200-$225 million for 2026. Operating income improved to $44.8 million in 2026-Q1. The company benefits from production tax credits. Sales growth and cost control support a financial recovery.
Green Plains is still loss-making with volatile management. Debt and capital costs are high. Earnings missed in late 2025. The turnaround may stall or reverse.
The price is about 34% below our fair value near $25. Analysts expect 10% revenue growth. Our view is cautious due to mixed progress and risks.
Breaks if: EBITDA falls below $200 million in FY26
Raise EBITDA guidance for 2026 to a range of $200 to $225 million.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story, as GPRE is working to improve its financial performance after a period of losses. The current thesis state is cautious, with management showing commitment to enhancing profitability and operational efficiency.
The market appears to have priced in a level of fragility, with GPRE being considered expensive compared to peers. However, there is an expectations gap, suggesting that investors may not fully anticipate the potential for improved earnings from management's initiatives.
Fundamentals are likely to improve as management focuses on increasing EBITDA and profitability through production tax credits. Recent financial performance has shown strong growth, but there is still a risk of erratic earnings surprises in the near term.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and deliver on profitability goals. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and the performance of sector bellwethers will be crucial for GPRE's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation fell by 11.4 points (from 70.4 to 59.0).
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a more favorable outlook for GPRE. There are no new threats identified that could weaken this view. The removal of the indirect land use change penalty for low carbon intensity fuels may also enhance demand and pricing.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Operating income falls below zero in 2026-Q1
Breaks if: Loss of production tax credits or major reduction
Overall, GPRE is in a recovery phase with potential for growth, but it faces risks that could impact its trajectory. Not investment advice.