Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE)

NASDAQMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$13.98+0.50%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Green Plains, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	486.75M
EPS	—	0.363
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.89B
EPS	—	2.138
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.99B
EPS	—	1.765

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EBITDA of $200-$225 million for 2026	Green Plains raised EBITDA guidance to $200-$225 million for 2026.	Intact	EBITDA falls below $200 million in FY26	Ebitda: $91.323M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $200 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202691,323,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: cb7eca35-6b9c-478b-be52-0e5bff8336a7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves to positive $44.8 million	Operating income improved to $44.8 million in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Operating income falls below zero in 2026-Q1	Operating income: $67.874M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $44.8 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202667,874,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: cb7eca35-6b9c-478b-be52-0e5bff8336a7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income improved significantly from a loss of $62.3 million in 2025-Q1 to a positive $44.8 million in 2026-Q1. Adjusted EBITDA rose from $16.4 million in 2025-Q2 to $93.3 million in 2026-Q2, showing management is delivering improved profitability and operational excellence. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Effective use of production tax credits	The company benefits from production tax credits.	Intact	Loss of production tax credits or major reduction	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Section 45Z production tax credits contributed $55.2 million in 2026-Q1 and $58.7 million in 2026-Q2 to adjusted EBITDA, significantly enhancing earnings. Management's focus on these credits aligns with the strong financial contribution and raised EBITDA guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$2,281,026,350	4 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$2,281,026,350	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$2,281,026,350	4 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$2,281,026,350	4 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$2,281,026,350	4 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$2,281,026,350	4 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$2,281,026,350	4 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$2,281,026,350	4 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	4
2026-06-01	3	4
2026-07-01	3	4
2026-08-01	3	4
2026-09-01	3	4
2026-10-01	3	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EBITDA of $200-$225 million for 2026Ebitda: $91.323M
Operating income improves to positive $44.8 millionOperating income: $67.874M
Effective use of production tax creditsQualitative condition

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Green Plains, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk, cyclical business with an improving profitability story, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent strong results and raised guidance, though the evidence snapshot has medium confidence.

What's priced into Green Plains, Inc.

The valuation signal is mixed: it indicates GPRE is cheap versus peers, while also showing a 72% premium to peers and an expensive value assessment. The negative expectations gap suggests the market may already be assuming strong results, so recent guidance progress matters; priced-in fragility is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have improved, with adjusted EBITDA rising from $71.5 million in 2026-Q1 to $93.3 million in 2026-Q2, and management raised full-year guidance to $200-$225 million. Section 45Z production tax credits contributed substantially, so the multi-year profitability story depends partly on those credits; earnings remain loss-making overall, and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What Green Plains, Inc. hinges on

A key swing factor is whether GPRE can sustain execution and avoid reversing its recent guidance increase, which would damage management credibility. Sector bellwethers DOW, DD, and CE offer signals: continued strong results could support sector momentum, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.