Valhi, Inc. (VHI)

NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$14.32-0.07%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Valhi, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	605.22M
EPS	—	0.889
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.07B
EPS	—	3.47
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.06B
EPS	—	3.56

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations improves from negative $46.1M	Dividend payments support cash flow outlook.	Under Pressure	Cash flow stays negative next 4 quarters	Cash from operations: $59.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202659,100,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities showed volatility, rising to $100.6 million in 2025-Q4 but declining to negative $46.1 million in 2026-Q1. Management continues to focus on managing cash flow and liquidity, but the trajectory shows mixed progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Net income stays positive at $2M or more next quarter	A primary condition in Valhi, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $2M.	Improving	Net income falls below zero next quarter	Net income: $22.3M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202622,300,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a41a8b2d-062a-4ee6-acae-420da6d90abb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Chemicals Segment operating income rose from $10.3 million in 2025-Q2 to $40.4 million in 2026-Q2, with total operating income increasing from $67.7 million in 2026-Q1 to $100.6 million in 2026-Q2. Management's cost reduction initiatives and operational efficiency efforts are delivering improved profitability. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improves to at least $32.9M next quarter	A primary condition in Valhi, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $32.9M.	Intact	Operating income falls below zero next quarter	Operating income: $67.7M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $32.9M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202667,700,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a41a8b2d-062a-4ee6-acae-420da6d90abb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Chemicals Segment operating income rose from $10.3 million in 2025-Q2 to $40.4 million in 2026-Q2, with total operating income increasing from $67.7 million in 2026-Q1 to $100.6 million in 2026-Q2. Management's cost reduction initiatives and operational efficiency efforts are delivering improved profitability. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows to at least $560.1M next quarter	A primary condition in Valhi, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $560.1M.	Intact	Revenue falls below $494.5M next quarter	Revenue: $606.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $560.1M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026606,100,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a41a8b2d-062a-4ee6-acae-420da6d90abb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Chemicals Segment net sales grew 13% from $494.4 million in 2025-Q2 to $558.1 million in 2026-Q2, and Component Products sales increased from $40.3 million to $43.6 million over the same period. Revenue growth is delivering consistent progress aligned with management's statements. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Monthly analyst history is unavailable.

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations improves from negative $46.1MPublished status: Under Pressure
Net income stays positive at $2M or more next quarterNet income: $22.3M
Operating income improves to at least $32.9M next quarterOperating income: $67.7M
Revenue grows to at least $560.1M next quarterRevenue: $606.1M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-25.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Valhi, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical chemicals and materials business with a recovery-oriented long-term thesis, rather than a steady compounder. The thesis is marked intact, but earnings quality is fragile, risk is elevated, and management’s recent score declined.

What's priced into Valhi, Inc.

The valuation evidence is mixed: VHI is described as cheap versus peers, yet it carries a 14% premium to peers and is classified as expensive. The model has low confidence, and its expectations-gap reading is negative, so the evidence does not show that the market is assuming a clear, strong recovery.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, repeated earnings misses and an elevated risk of another miss make results uncertain. Over the multi-year view, recent progress includes higher chemicals sales and operating income, supported by management’s cost and efficiency work, while operating cash flow remains volatile.

What Valhi, Inc. hinges on

The next call is a key test: a guidance cut would add to the concern around execution and estimates. Sector conditions also matter, with results and guidance from DOW, DD, and CE serving as signals for whether the Materials backdrop stays supportive or weakens.