Reading VELO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VELO free→Reading VELO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VELO free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, VELO trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 43% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This is because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. If VELO cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $23.09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $23 VELO trades at 7× p/s — 1.4× the 5× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $40 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 43% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.62x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
19 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.42 → $-0.35 (+17.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$651.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,598.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,084.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'inexpensive'.
Valuation changed. It rose from "full" to "inexpensive." Risk is still elevated. Earnings quality remains loss-making. Management is volatile.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth falls, it could signal a broader slowdown affecting Velo3D.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median in the next quarter.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VELO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and Item 7.01, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VELO Velo3D Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AAPL Apple Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SNDK Sandisk | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
DELL Dell Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | elevated |
STX Seagate Technology | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve positive EBITDA in the second half of 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Despite the goal of positive EBITDA in H2 2026, the company reported a net income loss of $6.998M in 2026-Q1, showing limited progress towards profitability. Management's trajectory remains challenging given the current financials.
“Positive EBITDA in the second half of 2026.”
“The Company now expects to achieve positive EBITDA in the second half of 2026.”
Management reiterates expectations for 2026 revenue to be between $60 million and $70 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $13.816M in 2026-Q1, indicating a need for significant growth to meet the annual target of $60M to $70M. The trajectory shows a substantial gap to close within the remaining quarters.
Capital expenditures are expected to be between $40 million and $50 million for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has not disclosed specific CapEx spending for 2026-Q1, making it difficult to assess progress towards the $40M to $50M target. The trajectory remains unclear without detailed quarterly CapEx figures.
“Capital expenditures in the range of $40 million to $50 million, primarily for RPS expansion.”
Entry Into A Material Definitive Agreement On May 15, 2026, Velo3D, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a sales agreement (the “Sales Agreement”) with Needham & Company, LLC, Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. and Craig-Hallum Capital Group, LLC (each, a “Sales Agent,” and collectively, the “Sales Agents”), acting as sales agents and/or principals. Pursuant to the terms of the Sales Agreement, the Company may sell from time to time to or through any Sales Agent shares of the Company’s common stock, par va…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement In connection with the Company’s entry into the Sales Agreement described in
Entry Into A Material Definitive Agreement On April 27, 2026, Velo3D, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., as underwriter (the “Underwriter”), relating to the offer and sale in a firm commitment underwritten registered direct offering (the “Offering”) of 3,571,428 shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.00001 per share. The Shares will be sold at a public offering price per share of $…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The Company is filing this Amendment to clarify that the Compensation Committee expects to make a one-time performance-based stock option award to Mr. Jeldi, our Chief Executive Officer, in 2026 (the “2026 Performance Award”). The Original Form 8-K erroneously indicated that the award would be an annual award, which did not accurately reflect the C…
“Management reiterates expectations for the full year 2026 to include: Revenue in the range of $60 million to $70 million.”
“Expects 2026 revenue between $60 million and $70 million.”
“CapEx in the range of $40 million to $50 million.”