Supermicro (SMCI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-10-30
$32.95-4.30%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put SMCI beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals is in supercycle. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Sustain positive EPS near $0.72 in Q3 2026: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 78% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 35%, softest on free-cash-flow yield.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 3% on a typical day and fell roughly 60% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskSMCI depends on AI and data-center infrastructure growth, with fiscal 2026 revenue targeted at $40 billion. Q3 FY2026 revenue grew 121% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS beat by 35.5%. Its shares trade at 9.4× P/E versus the 31.5× peer median; expectations look modest versus our view. Reported profits are not well backed by cash, and the next-quarter miss probability is 16%. The primary EPS pillar comparison needs review, so its status is unverified. Peer multiples imply a price about 53% above where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. SMCI is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 19 analysts currently covering SMCI (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 9 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for SMCI in the last 4 months.
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Compare SMCI with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMCI Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put SMCI next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Grow fiscal year 2026 revenue to at least $40 billion
Raised revenue forecast supports the $40 billion FY2026 growth objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $32.95
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $32.95.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Grow fiscal year 2026 revenue to at least $40 billion
Raised revenue outlook on AI demand supports the $40 billion growth objective.
Threatens: Strengthen operational and financial execution
CFO delay and alleged smuggling case raise serious execution and governance concerns.
Advances: Expand AI and datacenter infrastructure leadership with DCBBS
Shipping next-generation Nvidia racks demonstrates AI systems capability and product execution.
Advances: Expand AI and datacenter infrastructure leadership with DCBBS
Partnership enhances AI and datacenter infrastructure leadership.
Advances: Maintain positive EPS guidance and improve profitability
Strong results and Q1 outlook support profitability and positive guidance.
Threatens: Strengthen operational and financial execution
Large fundraising highlights financing needs and may pressure execution and shareholders.
Strengthen operational and financial execution
Fundraising addresses AI-order financing needs but introduces execution and dilution risks.