Seagate Technology (STX)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-10-30
$644.58-7.98%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put STX beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals is in supercycle. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 73% growth a year, above the roughly 53% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 3% on a typical day and fell roughly 42% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskSeagate’s bet is profitable growth from AI-driven storage demand and denser drives. That growth faces new HDD supply from Toshiba’s planned capacity expansion. Recent financial performance is strong, with three straight earnings beats. Fiscal Q3 2026 revenue grew 44% year over year; latest-quarter revenue growth is unavailable. STX trades at 32× earnings versus a 32× peer median. The market expects more growth than our forecast. Our model puts next-quarter miss probability near 17%. Weak cash backing and Toshiba’s expansion threaten the growth case. Peer multiples imply a price about 73% below where it trades. Our read remains intact; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. STX is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 28 analysts currently covering STX (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 10 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for STX in the last 4 months.
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Compare STX with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STX Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put STX next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Continue cash generation and operating execution
Earnings and revenue beat, with record cash flow, support operating execution and profitability.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $644.58
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $644.58.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Drive profitable growth from mass-capacity storage demand
Strong December-quarter revenue and EPS outlook supports profitable growth; buyback focus also signals cash returns.
Advances: Drive profitable growth through AI-driven storage demand
Raised guidance and an earnings beat support growth despite the share-price decline.
Advances: Drive profitable growth through AI-driven storage demand
Earnings and revenue beat estimates, a positive but incremental growth signal.
Advances: Maintain strong cash flow and shareholder returns
Shareholder returns align with capital allocation objectives.
Advances: Maintain strong cash flow and shareholder returns
Shareholder returns align with capital allocation objectives.
Threatens: Drive profitable growth through AI-driven storage demand
Increased competition may hinder AI-driven storage growth.
CEO's stock sale raises concerns about leadership integrity.
