Reading STX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STX free→Reading STX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STX free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, but risk is elevated, and the company has a capital-unfriendly stance. Peer multiples imply a price about 281% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1031.34. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1,031, STX's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 23× p/s (4.6× the 5× p/s peer median, and 7.6× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~281% near-term growth vs our ~5% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $270 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $475–$1,090. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 281% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.18x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, the US dollar.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $5.06 → $5.08 (+0.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 19 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.1% above current price.
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$293.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$596.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,100.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding guidance shows strong demand and supports Seagate's growth story.
Confirms:Q4 revenue reported at $3.45 billion or higher, confirming strong demand.
Disproves:Q4 revenue is below $3.35 billion. This shows weaker demand.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Drive profitable growth through AI-driven storage demand
Ceasefire boosts sentiment in AI-driven memory sector.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On June 11, 2026, Seagate HDD Cayman, a subsidiary of Seagate (the “Issuer” or “Seagate HDD”), issued a notice (the “Redemption Notice”) to holders of the Issuer’s 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028 (the “Notes”) calling for redemption (the “Redemption”) of all outstanding Notes. On September 8, 2026 (the “Redemption Date”), all then-outstanding Notes that are called for Redemption and have not been submitted for exchange will be redeemed for cash at a price (the “Redempti…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$475.00 – $1090.00 (median $767.00) · 17 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
STX Seagate Technology | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
AAPL Apple Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SNDK Sandisk | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
DELL Dell Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | full | elevated |
WDC Western Digital | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
36 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on leveraging AI applications to amplify data creation and support sustained storage demand.
Continue to generate strong cash flow and return value to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
Focus on product innovation through areal density improvements to deliver higher-capacity storage solutions.
Why it matters: Seagate's revenue growth shows strong demand for its storage products. This is true in AI and cloud markets.
Confirms:Q3 revenue growth reported above 30% year over year.
Disproves:Q3 revenue growth reported below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows good financial health. It helps return value to shareholders.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations reported above $1 billion in Q4.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations is below $900 million. This raises concerns about financial health.
Why it matters: A decline in free cash flow could raise concerns about Seagate's financial health and capital returns.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported below $900 million for the fiscal year.
Disproves:Free cash flow is over $900 million. This shows strong cash generation.
Why it matters: New AI product announcements may show Seagate's growth plans and market strength.
Confirms:Look for news about a new AI storage product line or partnership.
Disproves:No new AI-driven product announcements in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If HAMR products pass tests, Seagate will be stronger in mass data storage.
Confirms:Major cloud service providers are testing HAMR products.
Disproves:No new tests for HAMR products have been announced by major customers.
Why it matters: Starting share repurchases shows strong cash flow. It also shows confidence in future growth.
Confirms:Share repurchases are planned for Q3.
Disproves:No announcement of share repurchases in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend may show shifts in cash flow or financial health.
Confirms one read:Dividend payment remains at $0.74 per share or increases.
Confirms the other:Dividend payment is cut or suspended.
Why it matters: Strong demand from AI can drive growth and validate Seagate's product innovations.
Confirms one read:Seagate reports a big increase in sales from AI applications.
Confirms the other:Sales growth does not come from AI applications. This raises questions about the strategy.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend policy may show how management views cash flow and spending.
Confirms one read:Announcement of an increase in the dividend payout.
Confirms the other:A dividend cut or suspension has been announced.
Advances: Drive profitable growth through AI-driven storage demand
AI storage demand growth positively impacts Seagate's prospects.
Advances: Maintain strong cash flow and shareholder returns
Redemption improves cash flow and shareholder returns.
Advances: Drive profitable growth through AI-driven storage demand
AI growth potential aligns with management's growth objectives.
Advances: Enhance product strategy with areal density-driven innovation
High-density innovation aligns with product strategy objectives.
Advances: Drive profitable growth through AI-driven storage demand
Unprecedented AI-driven demand supports growth objectives.
Advances: Drive profitable growth through AI-driven storage demand
AI-driven demand aligns with growth objectives.
Advances: Drive profitable growth through AI-driven storage demand
CEO's message highlights significant AI data demand.
Other Events. On May 28, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the closing of a transaction the Company previously disclosed in a Current Report on the Form 8-K filed on May 21, 2026, whereby the Company and its subsidiary, Seagate HDD Cayman (“Seagate HDD”) entered into separate, privately negotiated exchange agreements (the “Exchange Agreements”) with a limited number of holders of Seagate HDD’s 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028 (the “Notes”) to exchange (collectively,…
by reference. The Exchanges (as defined below) were conducted as private placements, and the aggregate of 2,023,124 ordinary shares issued in the Exchanges were issued pursuant to the exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), afforded by Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act in transactions not involving any public offering.
Other Events. On May 20, 2026, the Company and its subsidiary, Seagate HDD Cayman (“Seagate HDD”) entered into separate, privately negotiated exchange agreements (the “Exchange Agreements”) with a limited number of holders of Seagate HDD’s 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028 (the “Notes”) to exchange (collectively, the “Exchanges”) $185.908 million principal amount of Notes for consideration consisting of an aggregate of $185.908 million in cash and a number of ordinary shares of the Com…
by reference. The Exchanges (as defined below) are being conducted as private placements, and any ordinary shares to be issued in the Exchanges will be issued pursuant to the exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), afforded by Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act in transactions not involving any public offering.