Reading HPQ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HPQ free→HP Inc. (HPQ)
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$24.30-1.24%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, HPQ is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 67% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on whether HPQ cuts guidance on the next call, which would be a meaningful negative.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Computer Hardware
- Market cap
- $23.08B
- Employees
- 55,000
- IPO date
- 1957-11-06
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-26
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$69.20consensus
Range $60.71 – $84.02
vs price: -65% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$58.14consensus
Range $40.85 – $83.07
vs price: -58% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $25 HPQ trades at 7× p/e, below its 26× p/e peer median. Our $73 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $17–$22. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
7.3x
peer 26.3x · own history 8.1x
Premium
0.3x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
-66%
our forecast 2%
Our fair value
$73.20
range $62.26 – $85.89
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensive12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 66% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
65th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.80x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
57th pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BullishEPS revised +4.9% / 30d, n=12for period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.63 → $0.66 (+4.9% / 30d). 8 raised, 2 cut, 12 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 10 maintained. 11% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -25.4% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Guidance credibility
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$148.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$376.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,662.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for Q3 GAAP diluted EPS below $0.47
Why it matters: If EPS falls below this level, it indicates a significant earnings drop. This could lead to negative market reactions.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q3 GAAP diluted EPS reported below $0.47.
Disproves:Q3 GAAP diluted EPS reported above $0.63.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HPQ yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Downside triggers
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2721d agoItem 2.02
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. On May 27, 2026, HP Inc. (“HP”) issued a news release relating to the results of operations for its fiscal quarter ended Ap…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+7.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.