HP Inc. (HPQ)

NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-10-15

$30.01-2.72%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge HP Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.19 → 3.19 EPS · FY ending Oct 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS of $2.15 to $2.45 in FY 2026	A primary condition in HP Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.15 EPS in FY26.	Intact	EPS falls below $2.15 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.71 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.15 EPS in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 20260.71 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 68f9d10a-a37a-4d2d-906b-0f00abd1bb49. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. HP has maintained GAAP diluted net EPS guidance around $2.5 to $2.6 for fiscal 2026, narrowing the range slightly over time. Actual GAAP diluted EPS was $0.71 in 2026-Q3, above the prior guidance midpoint for the quarter. The trajectory is delivering with consistent reiteration and quarterly EPS results supporting the annual target. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Free cash flow of $2.8 to $3.0 billion in FY 2026	It guides for $2.3 EPS and $2.9 billion free cash flow in FY26.	Under Pressure	Free cash flow falls below $2.8 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $1.548B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.8 billion FCF in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 20261,548,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. HP has consistently guided free cash flow in the range of $2.6 to $3.0 billion, raising it to $3.0 to $3.2 billion by 2026-Q3. Actual free cash flow was $1.57 billion in 2026-Q3, showing progress toward the annual target. The trajectory is delivering with upward revisions and quarterly cash flow generation supporting the goal. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Stable executive leadership	A supporting condition in HP Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No further major executive departures in next 4 quarters.	Intact	Additional CEO or president departures occur	No executive departures reported No executive departures found in news or events; board election noted as neutral with no specific departures. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth near 0.4% next 4 quarters	A supporting condition in HP Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 0.4% YoY revenue growth next 4 quarters.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 0.4% next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-10-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.19

$3.02 → $3.19 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$60.83B

$57.79B → $60.83B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-07-25	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-07-26	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-07-27	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-07-28	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-07-29	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-07-30	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-07-31	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-08-01	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-08-02	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-08-03	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-08-04	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-08-05	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-08-06	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-08-07	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-08-08	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-08-09	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-08-10	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-08-12	$3.01	$57,720,172,040	16 / 14
2026-08-13	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-08-14	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-08-15	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-08-16	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-08-17	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-08-18	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-08-19	$3.02	$57,794,374,205	9 / 10
2026-08-20	$3.02	$57,833,825,705	9 / 10
2026-08-21	$3.02	$57,833,825,705	9 / 10
2026-08-22	$3.02	$57,833,825,705	9 / 10
2026-08-23	$3.02	$57,833,825,705	9 / 10
2026-08-24	$3.02	$57,833,825,705	9 / 10
2026-08-25	$3.01	$57,704,258,978	9 / 10
2026-08-26	$3.01	$57,744,852,531	9 / 10
2026-08-27	$3.01	$57,744,852,531	9 / 10
2026-08-28	$3.01	$57,744,852,531	9 / 10
2026-08-29	$3.19	$60,665,121,756	9 / 10
2026-08-30	$3.19	$60,665,121,756	9 / 10
2026-08-31	$3.20	$60,799,711,762	9 / 10
2026-09-01	$3.20	$60,799,711,762	9 / 10
2026-09-02	$3.20	$60,799,711,762	9 / 10
2026-09-03	$3.20	$60,799,711,762	9 / 10
2026-09-04	$3.20	$60,799,711,762	9 / 10
2026-09-05	$3.20	$60,799,711,762	9 / 10
2026-09-06	$3.20	$60,799,741,754	9 / 10
2026-09-07	$3.20	$60,799,741,754	9 / 10
2026-09-08	$3.20	$60,799,741,754	9 / 10
2026-09-09	$3.20	$60,799,741,754	9 / 10
2026-09-10	$3.20	$60,799,741,754	9 / 10
2026-09-11	$3.20	$60,799,741,754	9 / 10
2026-09-12	$3.19	$60,825,188,772	10 / 11
2026-09-13	$3.19	$60,825,188,772	10 / 11
2026-09-14	$3.19	$60,825,188,772	10 / 11
2026-09-15	$3.19	$60,825,188,772	10 / 11
2026-09-16	$3.19	$60,825,188,772	10 / 11
2026-09-17	$3.19	$60,825,188,772	10 / 11
2026-09-18	$3.19	$60,825,188,772	10 / 11
2026-09-19	$3.19	$60,825,188,772	10 / 11
2026-09-20	$3.19	$60,825,188,772	10 / 11
2026-09-21	$3.19	$60,825,188,772	10 / 11
2026-09-22	$3.19	$60,825,188,772	10 / 11
2026-09-23	$3.19	$60,825,188,772	10 / 11
2026-09-24	$3.19	$60,825,188,772	10 / 11
2026-09-25	$3.19	$60,825,172,893	10 / 11
2026-09-26	$3.19	$60,825,172,893	10 / 11
2026-09-27	$3.19	$60,825,172,893	10 / 11
2026-09-28	$3.19	$60,825,172,893	10 / 11
2026-09-29	$3.19	$60,825,172,893	10 / 11
2026-09-30	$3.19	$60,825,172,893	10 / 11
2026-10-01	$3.19	$60,825,172,893	10 / 11
2026-10-02	$3.19	$60,825,172,893	10 / 11
2026-10-03	$3.19	$60,825,172,893	10 / 11
2026-10-04	$3.19	$60,825,172,893	10 / 11
2026-10-05	$3.19	$60,825,172,893	10 / 11
2026-10-06	$3.19	$60,825,172,893	10 / 11
2026-10-07	$3.19	$60,825,193,093	10 / 11
2026-10-08	$3.19	$60,825,193,093	10 / 11
2026-10-09	$3.19	$60,825,193,093	10 / 11
2026-10-10	$3.19	$60,825,193,093	10 / 11
2026-10-11	$3.19	$60,825,193,093	10 / 11
2026-10-12	$3.19	$60,825,193,093	10 / 11
2026-10-13	$3.19	$60,825,193,093	10 / 11
2026-10-14	$3.19	$60,825,193,093	10 / 11
2026-10-15	$3.19	$60,825,193,093	10 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	10	5
2026-06-01	2	10	6
2026-07-01	2	10	5
2026-08-01	2	10	5
2026-09-01	2	10	6
2026-10-01	2	11	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 6 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS of $2.15 to $2.45 in FY 2026Diluted EPS: $0.71 per share
Free cash flow of $2.8 to $3.0 billion in FY 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth near 0.4% next 4 quartersDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 24, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

HP Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on technology and innovation. The current thesis state is mixed, as management emphasizes priorities like AI adoption and free cash flow generation, but execution quality is fragile.

What's priced into HP Inc.

The market currently prices HPQ as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not fully account for the company's recent mixed performance and elevated risk factors.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management's focus on free cash flow and EPS guidance shows some positive momentum, but the recent decline in company momentum raises concerns. The near-term risk of missing guidance remains low, but past performance indicates potential volatility.

What HP Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the Fed's interest rate decisions, the performance of sector peers like DELL and ANET, and HPQ's ability to maintain or improve its guidance in upcoming calls. Any cuts to guidance could negatively impact sentiment.