Reading WDC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WDC free→Reading WDC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WDC free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash flow. Peer multiples imply a price about 160% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from WDC and the performance of sector bellwethers like SNDK, DELL, and STX. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $681.08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $654 WDC trades at 43× p/e — 1.6× the 26× p/e peer median, and above its own 19× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $276 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $350–$685. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 137% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -27%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.50x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.27 → $3.29 (+0.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 84% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.9% above current price.
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 2 guided quarters · 149.7% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$305.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$576.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,059.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choices can change interest rates. This affects WDC's business and the economy.
Confirms one read:FOMC decision to maintain or lower interest rates.
Confirms the other:The FOMC decided to raise interest rates a lot.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase revenue to $3.65 billion
Multiyear commitment indicates strong revenue growth potential.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. As previously reported on a Current Report on Form 8-K filed on June 3, 2026 (the “Original Form 8-K”), Western Digital Corporation (the “Company”) entered into separate, privately negotiated exchange agreements with certain holders of its 3.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2028 (the “Notes”), pursuant to which such holders have agreed to exchange approximately $858.4 million aggregate principal amount of Notes for cash and shares of common stock of th…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$350.00 – $685.00 (median $500.00) · 20 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WDC Western Digital | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
AAPL Apple Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SNDK Sandisk | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
DELL Dell Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | full | elevated |
STX Seagate Technology | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
20 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Aim to achieve revenue of $3.65 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2026.
Target a non-GAAP gross margin of 51.5% for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2026.
Management aims to achieve a non-GAAP EPS of $3.25 for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2026.
Why it matters: This earnings report gives details about how the company is doing.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows strong results with revenue and margin targets met.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows weak results and missed targets.
Why it matters: A slowdown in sector growth could impact Western Digital's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target shows strong demand. It also shows good work in the HDD market.
Confirms:Q4 revenue reported at or above $3.65 billion.
Disproves:Q4 revenue reported below $3.5 billion.
Why it matters: This margin shows good cost control and strong pricing power.
Confirms:Non-GAAP gross margin reported at 51.5% or higher.
Disproves:Non-GAAP gross margin reported below 50.5%.
Why it matters: Reaching this EPS target means the company is making more money and working better.
Confirms:Non-GAAP EPS reported at or above $3.25.
Disproves:Non-GAAP EPS reported below $3.00.
Advances: Increase revenue to $3.65 billion
Price-target hike reflects positive outlook on revenue growth.
Advances: Increase revenue to $3.65 billion
PT upgrade suggests strong revenue growth potential.
AI storage push aligns with growth objectives.
AI storage push aligns with growth objectives.
The issuance of the Exchange Shares (as defined below) will be undertaken in reliance upon an exemption from the registration requirements of Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
Other Events. On June 2, 2026, Western Digital Corporation (the “Company”) entered into separate, privately negotiated exchange agreements (the “Exchange Agreements”) with certain holders of its 3.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2028 (the “Notes”). Under the terms of the Exchange Agreements, the holders have agreed to exchange approximately $858.4 million aggregate principal amount of Notes (the “Exchange Notes”) held by them for (i) an amount in cash equal to the sum of (x) the aggregate pr…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 26, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Western Digital Corporation (the “Company”) unanimously appointed Manuvir Das to serve as a member of the Board until the Company’s next annual meeting of stockholders and until his successor is duly elected and qualified. In addition, Mr. Das was appointed as a member of the Audit Committee…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026 , Western Digital Corporation (the “Company”) announced financial results for the fiscal third quarter ended April 3, 2026. A copy of the press release making this announcement is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of…