NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve non-GAAP gross margin near 51.5% in fiscal Q4 2026: 51.5% vs 51.5% target.
Western Digital's sales grew 45% last quarter. They aim for $3.65 billion next quarter. Profit margin rose to 50.5% last quarter. AI and cloud demand support growth.
Memory market weakness and Apple competition may hurt sales and margins. Recent stock drop shows market worries. Capital raises could dilute shares.
The market expects 52% revenue growth next year. Our fair value is 48% below the Street median. We see risk in margin and competition.
Breaks if: margin falls more than 5% below guidance midpoints
Breaks if: gross margin falls below 44.5% in fiscal Q4 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
WDC represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and shareholder returns. However, the business faces volatility in management and high risk factors that could impact its performance in the near term.
The market currently reflects a stretched valuation for WDC, indicating that investors may expect strong execution and growth. There is an expectations gap, suggesting that any weakness in performance could lead to significant price adjustments.
WDC's recent financial performance has been strong, with revenue and earnings per share showing impressive growth. However, the fragility in earnings quality and management execution raises concerns about the sustainability of this performance.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain revenue growth and margin expansion while navigating sector headwinds. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers like DELL, ANET, and SNDK will be critical in determining WDC's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. There is also increased revenue guidance to $3.65 billion, which reinforces growth expectations. The narrative for memory storage is shifting to secular demand due to AI data center buildout. This change suggests sustained growth for Western Digital's products.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: significant dilutive equity issuance announced
Breaks if: revenue falls below $2.9 billion in fiscal Q4 2026
Aim to achieve revenue of $3.65 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2026.
In the next 1 to 3 years, WDC's outlook will depend on its management execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.
