Reading CRCT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CRCT free→Reading CRCT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CRCT free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with CRCT trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 58% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.51. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.51 CRCT trades at 13× p/e, below its 26× p/e peer median. Our $11 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 58% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.68x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.04 → $0.06 (+35.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$130.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$495.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,420.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change how much people spend and interest rates. This affects Cricut's sales.
Confirms one read:When the FOMC raises interest rates, it shows strong confidence in the economy.
Confirms the other:When the FOMC cuts interest rates, it shows worries about the economy.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CRCT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, the Company issued a press release and will hold a conference call announcing its financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit are “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as ame…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CRCT Cricut, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AAPL Apple Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SNDK Sandisk | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
DELL Dell Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | elevated |
STX Seagate Technology | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to generate positive cash flow from operations each quarter in 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $26.85M in 2026-Q1, indicating positive cash flow generation. Management's focus on maintaining positive cash flow is delivering as expected.
“We expect to be profitable each quarter and generate positive cash flow from operations during 2026.”
“We expect to be profitable each quarter and generate positive cash flow from operations during 2026.”
Management is committed to maintaining profitability in each quarter of 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income was $20.32M in 2026-Q1, supporting management's commitment to quarterly profitability. The trajectory aligns with management's stated goal of maintaining profitability.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can show how well Cricut's products are selling. Strong sales suggest good demand.
Confirms:Retail sales growth above 0.5% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decline month over month.
Why it matters: GDP growth shows how healthy the economy is. This can affect Cricut's sales.
Confirms:GDP growth above 2% year over year.
Disproves:GDP growth below 1% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 3, 2026, Cricut Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release and will hold a conference call announcing its financial results for its fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit are “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Sec…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2025, the Company issued a press release and will hold a conference call announcing its financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit are “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 193…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2025, the Company issued a press release and will hold a conference call announcing its financial results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit are “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as…
“We expect to be profitable each quarter and generate positive cash flow from operations during 2026.”
“We expect to be profitable each quarter and generate positive cash flow from operations during 2026.”