Reading UMAC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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AMEXInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is high, and compared with sector peers, it is below typical for the sector, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 50% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $25.23. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $25, UMAC's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 29× p/s (5.9× the 5× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $17 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $20–$40. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 50% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted -17.36x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.10 → $-0.10 (-200.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 29.6% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$568.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,062.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,263.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below its median, it signals a weakening sector. This could impact UMAC's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its median value.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median value.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UMAC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 14, 2026, Unusual Machines, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a letter to shareholders announcing its results of operations for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the shareholder letter is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Se…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$20.00 – $40.00 (median $25.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UMAC Unusual Machines Inc /US | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 6 of 100 | expensive | high |
AAPL Apple Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SNDK Sandisk | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
DELL Dell Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | full | elevated |
STX Seagate Technology | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to return margins to a 40% target by late 2026 or early 2027.
The company aims to increase its operating breakeven point from $30-40 million in annual revenue to a higher level.
The company plans to acquire Upgrade Energy LLC for $52 million.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 7, 2026, Unusual Machines, Inc. (the “Company”), a manufacturer of NDAA-compliant drone components, entered into a $52 million agreement and plan of merger (the “Merger Agreement”), with Upgrade Energy LLC, a newly formed subsidiary of the Company (the “Surviving Company”), DroneNX LLC d/b/a Upgrade Energy (“Upgrade”), and Matthew Barnard as the Member Representative of Upgrade, pursuant to which, the Surviving Company, will acquire all of th…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As of May 5, 2026, Unusual Machines, Inc. (the “Company”), a manufacturer of NDAA-compliant drone components, placed approximately $75 million of inventory orders with certain suppliers located in the United States.
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) On April 1, 2026, the Compensation Committee of Unusual Machines, Inc. (the “Company”) approved increasing the annual salaries for senior management effective immediately as follows: $350,000 for Dr. Allan Evans, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer, $300,000 for Brian Hoff, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, $300,000 for Andrew Camden,…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 19, 2026, Unusual Machines, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Placement Agency Agreement (the “Agreement”) with Dominari Securities LLC and JonesTrading Institutional Services LLC (combined together hereinafter referred to as the “Placement Agents”), relating to the confidentially marketed public offering (the “Offering”) of 8,823,529 shares of the Company’s common stock, at a price to the public of $17.00 per share. A copy of the Agreeme…