Unusual Machines Inc /US (UMAC)

AMEXInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$17.02+4.61%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Unusual Machines Inc /US’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	19.34M
EPS	—	-0.178
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	56.47M
EPS	—	-0.271
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	104.82M
EPS	—	-0.477

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve gross margin near 40% by late 2026	Unusual Machines aims to improve its gross margin to 40% by late 2026.	Improving	gross margin falls below 33% in FY26	Gross margin: 34.7% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=33% and up to 40% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202634.696639 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7fb7d1b9-e942-4197-b15f-90fde960434e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase operating breakeven revenue level above $40 million	The company plans to increase its operating breakeven revenue above $30-40 million.	Improving	annual revenue fails to exceed $30 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete $52 million acquisition of Upgrade Energy	It is completing a $52 million acquisition to boost growth.	Intact	acquisition fails to close or is materially delayed past mid 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$0.10B

Unavailable → $0.10B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$103,275,377	3 / 6
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$104,815,955	4 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	0	0
2026-06-01	6	0	0
2026-07-01	7	0	0
2026-08-01	8	0	0
2026-09-01	8	0	0
2026-10-01	9	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 23 · prior Aug 12

$38.00 → $29.00-23.7%

Northland SecuritiesOct 23

$30.00New observation · no comparable prior

NeedhamOct 7 · prior Jun 11

$30.00 → $40.00+33.3%

$0$22.00$44.00

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve gross margin near 40% by late 2026Gross margin: 34.7%
Increase operating breakeven revenue level above $40 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Complete $52 million acquisition of Upgrade EnergyDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

4.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-52.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Unusual Machines Inc /US outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, loss-making growth business rather than a proven compounder. Its three-to-six-month thesis is on watch: capacity and revenue are expanding, but recent financial performance is weak relative to its industry cohort.

What's priced into Unusual Machines Inc /US

The valuation model has low confidence, and UMAC carries a 7.65-point premium versus peers, with optionality driving the gap. The valuation measure recently fell by 11.1 points, but the evidence does not show that the market has priced in the full combination of weak execution, expensive valuation, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and gross profit have risen, while operating losses remain substantial and operating cash flow has not yet shown progress toward management’s year-end 2026 goal. Gross margin was 34.7% in Q2, with management expecting near-term pressure before recovery toward 40%; erratic earnings and peer misses make the next results a risk to watch.

What Unusual Machines Inc /US hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the key test is whether manufacturing expansion supports continued revenue growth while margins improve and operating cash flow turns positive. A guidance cut would weaken the thesis, while easing interest rates or strong results from sector bellwethers could provide a favorable backdrop; the evidence does not establish the effects of the newly completed acquisition.