Velo3D Inc (VELO)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-09
$10.91-8.78%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve positive EBITDA in second half of 2026: EBITDA not reported.
Velo3D aims to grow revenue from about $14M in Q1 2026 to $60M-$70M in 2026. Management targets positive EBITDA in the second half of 2026. The company has reaffirmed a gross margin above 30%. New CFO hires and stable guidance support execution.
The company is still loss-making with negative EPS expected through 2027. Revenue growth must accelerate sharply from a low base. Recent sharp share price decline and management volatility raise risks. Failure to hit EBITDA or revenue targets would hurt confidence.
The market prices in about 49% revenue growth and values the stock roughly 49% below our fair value near $26. We agree the turnaround is uncertain and the valuation reflects elevated risk.
Breaks if: Capex exceeds $60M in FY26
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 25% in FY26
Breaks if: EBITDA remains negative through end of 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The company is currently loss-making with volatile management, but it has set ambitious targets for revenue and profitability.
The market seems to have priced in a justified valuation, with expectations that are slightly below the current performance levels. There is a low level of fragility in the stock, indicating that the market does not anticipate major disruptions.
Fundamentals may continue to show mixed results. While revenue growth is on track, the company has a high probability of missing earnings expectations, which could affect investor sentiment.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to achieve positive EBITDA and meet revenue targets. Additionally, external factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and performance of sector peers will play a crucial role in shaping the company's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $65M-$75M. This aligns with a revenue surge of 52% and a doubling of backlog. These developments support the revenue target of $60M to $70M for 2026.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Management aims to achieve positive EBITDA in the second half of 2026.
Breaks if: Annual revenue falls below $45M in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, VELO's performance will depend on execution against its targets and external market conditions. Not investment advice.