Reading TXT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TXT free→Reading TXT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TXT free→NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and the company has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 57% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $93.73. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $94 TXT trades at 16× p/e, below its 38× p/e peer median. Our $214 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $100–$109. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 56% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.60 → $1.55 (-3.2% / 30d). 2 raised, 11 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 35% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$100.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$240.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,469.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would support management's goal to increase 2026 revenue.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue growth reported at over 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TXT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026, Textron Inc. (“Textron” or the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended April 4, 2026. This press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. A discussion of the reasons why management believes that the presentation of non-GAAP financial measures provides useful information to investors regarding Textron’s financial condition and resul…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$100.00 – $109.00 (median $108.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-04
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2023-Q1, 2024-Q1, 2025-Q1, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TXT Textron | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | inexpensive | low |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Textron plans to separate its Industrial segment to enhance strategic focus and drive long-term value.
Textron aims to increase its 2026 revenues to approximately $15.5 billion, up from $14.8 billion in 2025.
Textron aims to achieve manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions between $700 million and $800 million in 2026.
Why it matters: A bigger backlog shows strong demand. This means more revenue for Textron Aviation.
Confirms:Textron Aviation backlog reported above $8 billion by end of Q2 2026.
Disproves:Textron Aviation backlog reported below $7.5 billion by end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The separation could help focus on aerospace and defense. This may create long-term value.
Confirms:Look for a final agreement or the end of the Industrial segment separation.
Disproves:No progress or delays in the planned separation of the Industrial segment.
Why it matters: The split could help focus on aerospace and defense. This may affect long-term value.
Confirms:A press release will confirm when and how to separate the Industrial segment.
Disproves:No updates or delays have been shared about the Industrial segment split.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company is more efficient. It also shows stronger financial health.
Confirms:Manufacturing cash flow for Q2 2026 exceeds $300 million.
Disproves:Manufacturing cash flow for Q2 2026 is below $200 million.
Other Events. On April 30, 2026, Textron announced its intent to separate its Industrial segment, composed of Kautex and Textron Specialized Vehicles, from the Company’s core aerospace and defense businesses to enhance its strategic and operational focus and drive long-term value for stakeholders. Textron intends to explore multiple paths to effect the planned separation of its Industrial segment, including but not limited to a sale of the Industrial businesses or a tax-free separation into a…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 30, 2026, the Board of Directors of Textron Inc. (“Textron”) elected Cristina Méndez as a member of the Board effective February 15, 2026. Ms. Méndez is Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Otis Worldwide Corporation where she oversees a wide range of functions, including Investor Relations, Financial Planning and Anal…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 28, 2026, Textron Inc. (“Textron”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended January 3, 2026. This press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. A discussion of the reasons why management believes that the presentation of non-GAAP financial measures provides useful information to investors regarding Textron’s financial condition and results o…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) (c) (d) On October 22, 2025, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Textron Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Lisa M. Atherton, the Company’s current President and CEO of the Company’s Bell segment, as the next President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company and as a member of the Board, both to be effective January 4, 2026. Ms. Atherton wil…