Reading TUSK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TUSK free→Reading TUSK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TUSK free→NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality is fragile, which raises concerns. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, TUSK is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 45% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. If TUSK reverses and cuts guidance, it could hurt credibility.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.09 TUSK trades at 12× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $5.60 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 45% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.36x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$271.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$593.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,252.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth picks up, it could benefit Mammoth's business.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up to over 5% each year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth slows down to under 5% each year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TUSK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 11, 2026 , Mammoth Energy Services, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its operational and financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of that press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and will not be incorpora…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Conglomerates.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TUSK Mammoth Energy Services, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
HON Honeywell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | low |
MMM 3M | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CSL Carlisle Companies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SEB Seaboard Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to reach full-year Adjusted EBITDA positive in 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company reported a net income of $5.19 million in 2026-Q1, a significant improvement from a net loss of $12.62 million in 2025-Q3. This indicates progress towards achieving positive Adjusted EBITDA, though the trajectory remains to be fully established.
“we are raising our 2026 outlook, including now expecting to reach full-year Adjusted EBITDA positive in 2026.”
Focus on increasing revenue across quarters to enhance financial performance.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue increased from $1.45 million in 2025-Q4 to $22.03 million in 2026-Q1, showing a strong upward trajectory. This aligns with management's focus on improving revenue performance.
Why it matters: If peers maintain strong RFP status, it may highlight competitive pressures on Mammoth.
Confirms:At least two peers report strong RFP status in their next updates.
Disproves:Peer RFP status gets worse, showing a bigger industry problem.
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant. On May 13, 2026, the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors (the “Audit Committee”) of Mammoth Energy Services, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the dismissal of Deloitte & Touche LLP (“Deloitte”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm. The Company informed Deloitte of their dismissal on May 13, 2026. During the Company’s most recent fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 and during the subsequent interim period from January…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 6, 2026, Mammoth Energy Services, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its operational and financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of that press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and wil…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. The information set forth above under
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Equity Purchase Agreement On December 2, 2025, Mammoth Energy Partners LLC ("MEP"), a subsidiary of Mammoth Energy Services, Inc. (“Mammoth” or the “Company”), entered into an Equity Purchase Agreement (the “Agreement”), as the seller, with Qualus, LLC (“Qualus”), as the buyer, and Aquawolf LLC ("Aquawolf"), MEP's wholly-owned subsidiary and the subject of the sale, as a party to the Agreement. Pursuant to the Agreement, MEP sold all equity interest…
“Revenue increased to $22.03 million.”
“Revenue was $1.45 million.”
“Revenue was $14.80 million.”