Reading RCMT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RCMT free→
RCM Technologies, Inc. (RCMT)
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$26.03+0.35%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, though the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance compared to sector peers that are above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 48% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Conglomerates
- Market cap
- $181.87M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1995-05-16
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $26.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$50.45consensus
Range $43.70 – $53.11
vs price: -48% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$106.78consensus
Range $106.78 – $106.78
vs price: -76% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $26 RCMT trades at 11× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $50 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
11.5x
peer 23.4x · own history —
Premium
0.5x peer
Growth the price needs
-48%
our forecast 6%
Our fair value
$50.28
range $45.20 – $52.92
WhyPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 48% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
83rd pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.31x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
6th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, the US dollar.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -3.4% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.72 → $0.70 (-3.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$170.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$400.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,616.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report on June 17
Why it matters: This report can indicate consumer spending trends. Strong retail sales may suggest better demand for RCM's services.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Retail sales rise a lot in the report compared to earlier months.
Confirms the other:Retail sales drop a lot or stay the same.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RCMT yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HON, MMM, and VMI keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting RCMT and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If RCMT raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2025-11-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If RCMT cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2025-11-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like HON, MMM, and VMI start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping RCMT and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits RCMT and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-041mo agoItem 4.01
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant. (a) Previous Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm. (i) On April 29, 2026, RCM Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) dismissed EisnerAmper LLP (“Eisner”) as its independent registered public accounting firm. (ii) Eisner’s audit report on the consolidated financial statements of the Company and subsidiaries for the fiscal year ended January 3, 2026 did not contain any adverse opinion or disclaimer of opinion and was not qualified or modified…
Legal / regulatorynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.