Reading CSL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CSL free→Reading CSL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CSL free→NYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If CSL cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $356.79. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $354 CSL trades at 18× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $455 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $360–$425. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 22% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.46x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $6.45 → $6.42 (-0.4% / 30d). 3 raised, 5 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$117.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$340.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,167.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Low-single-digit growth is key to meeting 2026 revenue goals. It shows market demand stability.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported at or above 1% year-over-year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is less than 1% compared to last year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CSL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 28, 2026, Scott C. Selbach retired from Carlisle Companies Incorporated (the “Company”) as Executive Vice President, Government Relations & Secretary after more than 35 years of valuable service to the Company. Jonathan R. Collins submitted his resignation to the Corporate Governance and Nominating Committee (the “Committee”) of the Board…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$360.00 – $425.00 (median $425.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-04-27
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Conglomerates.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CSL Carlisle Companies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HON Honeywell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | low |
MMM 3M | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SEB Seaboard Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CSW CSW Industrials, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | full | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims for low-single-digit revenue growth for the fiscal year 2026.
Management plans to expand adjusted EBITDA margins by approximately 50 basis points in 2026.
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost control and efficiency. This is important for making money.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA margin grows by at least 50 basis points compared to last year in Q2.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin either shrinks or stays the same compared to last year in Q2.
Why it matters: The Q2 earnings will show if Carlisle's revenue growth is improving or not. This is key for investors.
Confirms one read:Q2 revenue grew more than 8% from last year. This shows a recovery.
Confirms the other:Q2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year, signaling continued weakness.
Why it matters: Geopolitical issues can change demand in construction markets. This affects revenue growth.
Confirms:No big drop in construction work has been seen from global tensions.
Disproves:A big drop in construction work is tied to global tensions.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector shows renewed growth, it could lift Carlisle's performance. This would impact investor sentiment.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth reported above 7% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks show that management trusts the company's value. This affects returns for shareholders.
Confirms:Share buybacks announced for $250 million or more in Q2.
Disproves:No share buybacks announced or plans cut for Q2.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, Carlisle Companies Incorporated (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding the Company’s financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Secti…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 3, 2026, Carlisle Companies Incorporated (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding the Company’s financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of…