Reading CSW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CSW free→Reading CSW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CSW free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly approach. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact CSW's performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $272.89. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $273 CSW trades at 27× p/e, in line with its 23× p/e peer median. Our $233 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $285–$378. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 17% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.34x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.44 → $3.46 (+0.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 2.7% above current price.
2 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 121.1% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$184.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$430.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,456.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Closing this acquisition will enhance CSW's HVAC/R product offerings and could drive future growth.
Confirms:MARS Parts acquisition closes successfully by the end of Q3 2026.
Disproves:Acquisition may not close due to rules or unmet conditions.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CSW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 26, 2026, CSW Industrials, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal fourth quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 1…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$285.00 – $378.00 (median $300.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Conglomerates.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CSW CSW Industrials, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | full | moderate |
HON Honeywell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | low |
MMM 3M | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CSL Carlisle Companies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SEB Seaboard Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
CSW aims to deliver meaningful growth in revenue, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, and cash flows in fiscal 2027.
CSW plans to leverage recent acquisitions to accelerate growth and expand market reach.
CSW aims to keep its net leverage ratio within the stated target range of 1-3x.
Why it matters: Growth in adjusted EBITDA shows the company is running well and making money. This is important for investor trust.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA growth will be more than 18.3% in fiscal 2027.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA growth is below 18.3% in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: A strong revenue growth signal would show CSW is overcoming sector headwinds. It could indicate a positive shift in demand.
Confirms:Q4 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q4 revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Better margins mean the company is managing costs well. It also shows good integration of acquisitions.
Confirms one read:Adjusted EBITDA margin goes above 27% in Q1 2027.
Confirms the other:Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 25% in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Steady growth means recent purchases are helping sales.
Confirms:Contractor Solutions expects at least 3% revenue growth next quarter.
Disproves:Contractor Solutions may see revenue growth drop below 2% next quarter.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows the company is doing well. Negative cash flow can worry investors.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations turns positive in the next quarter.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations remains negative in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping the net leverage ratio in the target range shows good management.
Confirms:Net leverage ratio stays below 2.5x in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Net leverage ratio exceeds 3.0x in the next earnings report.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 26, 2026, CSW Industrials, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal fourth quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release, as corrected, is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed filed for purpos…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026, CSW Industrials, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal third quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Sec…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously disclosed, in April 2021, the Compensation and Talent Development Committee (the “ Compensation Committee ”) of the Board of Directors of the Company (the “ Board ”) approved a special equity award for Joe Armes, the Company’s Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President, with the purpose of retaining Mr. Armes through retirement a…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 1, 2025, the Company issued a press release reporting preliminary estimated financial information for the second quarter ended September 30, 2025, with respect to its outstanding balance on the Company’s revolving credit facility and its repurchase of shares pursuant to its existing share repurchase program. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished in this