Reading HON? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HON free→Reading HON? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HON free→NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If HON cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $227.41. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $227 HON trades at 27× p/e, in line with its 26× p/e peer median. Our $219 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $233–$276. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 4% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.26x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.42 → $2.42 (-0.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 54% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.9% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$96.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$225.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,700.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The spin-off will create a separate company focused on aerospace. This could unlock value for shareholders.
Confirms:Honeywell Aerospace stock starts trading on Nasdaq with the ticker 'HONA'.
Disproves:The spin-off is delayed or canceled. This affects investor confidence.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Maintain revenue growth
Aerospace spin-off aligns with revenue growth objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Director — Craig Arnold, William Ayer, D. Scott Davis, Deborah Flint, Jillian Evanko: Directors are resigning in connection with the anticipated spin-off of Aerospace Technologies business and due to other professional commitments.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$233.00 – $276.00 (median $267.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-06-10
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Conglomerates.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HON Honeywell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | low |
MMM 3M | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CSL Carlisle Companies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SEB Seaboard Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CSW CSW Industrials, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | full | moderate |
39 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 3.8% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Complete the spin-off of Honeywell Aerospace into an independent, publicly traded company by the third quarter of 2026.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. The spin-off of Honeywell Aerospace is planned for Q3 2026. The company has consistently reiterated this timeline, indicating a strong commitment to the separation. However, no specific financial impact or customer announcements related to the spin-off have been disclosed yet, suggesting limited substantive delivery so far.
“CEO: 'Separation of our automation and aerospace businesses to be completed in Q3 2026.'”
“CEO: 'Spin-off of Honeywell Aerospace expected in the third quarter of 2026.'”
“CEO: 'Separation of Automation and Aerospace businesses remains on track for completion in the second half of 2026.'”
“CEO: 'Plan to separate Automation and Aerospace businesses by the second half of 2026.'”
Focus on sustaining revenue growth across all business segments.
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue was $9.143 billion in 2026-Q1, down from $9.758 billion in 2025-Q4. Despite the decline, management continues to project full-year sales between $38.8 billion and $39.8 billion, indicating a recurring focus on growth. However, the recent quarter's revenue decrease suggests limited progress towards this goal.
“CEO: 'We continue to expect full-year sales of $38.8 billion to $39.8 billion.'”
Maintain free cash flow expectations between $5.3 billion and $5.6 billion for the fiscal year.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Free cash flow was -$650 million in 2026-Q1, a significant drop from $1.204 billion in 2025-Q4. Despite this, management maintains a full-year target of $5.3 billion to $5.6 billion. The negative cash flow this quarter indicates a challenging trajectory towards achieving the annual target.
“CFO: 'Free cash flow expectations are unchanged at $5.3 billion to $5.6 billion.'”
Target adjusted EPS growth with a range of $10.35 to $10.65 for 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority for Honeywell. Weak growth may signal ongoing challenges.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Updates on the Aerospace spin-off could impact Honeywell's future structure and financials. It is a major strategic move.
Confirms one read:The date or completion of the Aerospace spin-off will be announced.
Confirms the other:The Aerospace spin-off might be delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Meeting free cash flow expectations is crucial for Honeywell's capital allocation plans. It shows financial health.
Confirms:Free cash flow in Q2 meets or exceeds $1 billion.
Disproves:Free cash flow in Q2 falls below $500 million.
Why it matters: Achieving EPS growth is a priority. Weak results may raise concerns about profitability.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS growth reported below 3% year over year.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS growth exceeds 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insight into revenue growth and free cash flow. This is key for investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EPS growth means more profit. This is important for investor trust.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS growth in Q2 exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS growth in Q2 is negative year over year.
Advances: Maintain revenue growth
Aerospace spin-off aligns with revenue growth objectives.
Acquisitions align with growth and capital allocation objectives.
M&A opportunities align with growth and capital allocation objectives.
Advances: Maintain revenue growth
Targets align with revenue growth strategy post-spinoff.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On June 1, 2026, Honeywell International Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Ms. Jillian Evanko, 48, Chief Executive Officer of Duravant LLC, has been appointed to serve as an Independent Director on the Company’s Board of Directors and a member of the Audit Committee, in each case, effective June 1, 2026. Ms. Evanko has served as Chief Executive Of…
Other Events On June 15, 2026, the Company announced that the Board has approved the Spin-Off and declared a pro rata distribution (the “ Distribution ”) of all of the issued and outstanding shares of Honeywell Aerospace common stock to the holders of Company common stock as of the close of business on June 15, 2026 (the “ Record Date ”). The Distribution will be effective as of 12:01 a.m. (New York City time) on June 29, 2026 (the “ Distribution Date ”). On the Distribution Date, holders of…
Other Events Honeywell Aerospace Spin-Off On June 5, 2026, the Company announced, in connection with the anticipated spin-off (the “ Spin-Off ”) of the Company’s Aerospace Technologies business into an independent, publicly traded company named “Honeywell Aerospace Inc.” (“ Honeywell Aerospace ”), that the Board has approved a record date of June 15, 2026 (the “ Record Date ”) for the pro rata distribution (the “ Distribution ”) of all of the issued and outstanding shares of Honeywell Aerospa…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 23, 2026, Honeywell International Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 earnings, which is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section and shall not be deemed to…
“CEO: 'Fourth-quarter sales growth was driven primarily by strong demand in the Aerospace and Building Automation segments.'”
“CEO: 'Sales of $10.4 billion, reported sales up 8%, organic sales up 5%.'”
“CEO: 'Sales of $9.8 billion, reported sales up 8%, organic sales up 4%.'”
“CEO: 'Fourth-quarter sales of $10.1 billion, reported sales up 7%, organic sales up 2%.'”
“CEO: 'Sales of $9.7 billion, reported sales up 6%, organic sales up 3%.'”
“CFO: 'Free cash flow is expected to be $5.3 billion to $5.6 billion.'”
“CFO: 'Free cash flow in the range of $5.4 billion to $5.8 billion.'”
“CFO: 'Free cash flow is still expected to be in the range of $5.4 billion to $5.8 billion.'”