Honeywell (HON)

NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$211.41+0.43%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Honeywell’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.99 → 9.84 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted EPS growth of 6%-9% in 2026	Adjusted EPS is expected to grow 6% to 9%, reaching about $10.5 per share.	Under Pressure	Adjusted EPS falls below $10.35 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management updated adjusted EPS guidance for 2026 to $8.05 to $8.35 as of 2026-Q2, down from prior guidance near $10.50. This reflects the new standalone company structure post spin-off. Prior quarters reaffirmed growth targets of 6% to 9%. The trajectory shows a downward revision in absolute EPS guidance consistent with the Aerospace spin-off, but management maintains growth expectations for the remaining business. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Complete spin-off of Aerospace Technologies by Q3 2026	Honeywell plans to complete its Aerospace spin-off by Q3 2026, unlocking growth.	Under Pressure	Spin-off delayed beyond Q3 2026	Spin-off delayed beyond Q3 2026 Headline reports exiting remaining stake in spin-off gone wrong, confirming failure to complete Aerospace Technologies spin-off by Q3 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management completed the spin-off of Honeywell Aerospace on June 29, 2026, marking a historic milestone. Prior quarters consistently reaffirmed the planned separation by Q3 2026. The trajectory is delivering as the spin-off is now complete. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Sustain free cash flow growth of 4%-10% in 2026	Free cash flow is strong, with guidance of $5.3B to $5.6B, up 4% to 10%.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $5.3B in FY26	Free cash flow: $961M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Free cash flow between $5.3B and $5.6B in 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 2026961,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain and grow revenue with 3%-6% organic growth in 2026	A primary condition in Honeywell's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue between $38.8B and $39.8B in 2026.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $38.8B in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management updated 2026 organic sales growth guidance to 3% to 4% as of 2026-Q2, narrowing from prior 3% to 6%. Revenue grew modestly with reported sales of $9.7B in 2026-Q2, up 4% organically year over year. The trajectory shows management maintaining and refining growth expectations consistent with prior statements. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.84

$9.92 → $9.84 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$20.52B

$20.46B → $20.52B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.92	$20,456,608,468	9 / 10
2026-07-25	$9.92	$20,456,608,468	9 / 10
2026-07-26	$9.91	$20,457,056,580	17 / 16
2026-07-27	$9.93	$20,464,053,250	17 / 17
2026-07-28	$9.96	$20,440,050,997	9 / 12
2026-07-29	$9.98	$20,561,835,400	18 / 18
2026-07-30	$9.98	$20,561,835,400	18 / 18
2026-07-31	$9.98	$20,561,835,400	18 / 18
2026-08-01	$10.01	$20,549,597,828	9 / 13
2026-08-02	$9.98	$20,532,289,440	17 / 17
2026-08-03	$10.04	$20,543,217,833	9 / 13
2026-08-04	$10.01	$20,555,440,020	18 / 18
2026-08-05	$10.04	$20,543,217,833	9 / 13
2026-08-06	$10.04	$20,543,217,833	9 / 13
2026-08-07	$10.04	$20,543,217,833	9 / 13
2026-08-08	$10.04	$20,543,217,833	9 / 13
2026-08-09	$9.98	$20,555,440,020	19 / 18
2026-08-10	$10.04	$20,543,217,833	9 / 13
2026-08-12	$9.99	$20,548,999,630	19 / 18
2026-08-13	$9.99	$20,548,999,630	19 / 18
2026-08-14	$10.04	$20,543,217,833	9 / 13
2026-08-15	$10.04	$20,543,217,833	10 / 13
2026-08-16	$10.04	$20,543,217,833	10 / 13
2026-08-17	$10.04	$20,543,217,833	10 / 13
2026-08-18	$10.04	$20,543,217,833	10 / 14
2026-08-19	$10.04	$20,543,217,833	10 / 14
2026-08-20	$10.00	$20,540,755,047	10 / 15
2026-08-21	$10.00	$20,540,755,047	11 / 16
2026-08-22	$10.00	$20,540,755,047	11 / 16
2026-08-23	$10.00	$20,540,755,047	11 / 16
2026-08-24	$10.00	$20,540,755,047	11 / 16
2026-08-25	$10.00	$20,540,755,047	11 / 16
2026-08-26	$10.01	$20,549,476,853	11 / 16
2026-08-27	$10.01	$20,549,476,853	11 / 16
2026-08-28	$10.01	$20,549,476,853	11 / 16
2026-08-29	$10.01	$20,549,476,853	11 / 16
2026-08-30	$10.01	$20,549,476,853	11 / 16
2026-08-31	$10.01	$20,549,476,853	11 / 16
2026-09-01	$9.98	$20,549,476,853	11 / 16
2026-09-02	$10.01	$20,582,308,393	12 / 16
2026-09-03	$10.01	$20,582,308,393	12 / 16
2026-09-04	$10.01	$20,582,320,678	12 / 16
2026-09-05	$9.95	$20,494,164,553	12 / 16
2026-09-06	$9.95	$20,494,164,553	12 / 16
2026-09-07	$9.95	$20,494,175,393	12 / 16
2026-09-08	$9.98	$20,509,095,393	12 / 16
2026-09-09	$9.98	$20,509,095,393	12 / 16
2026-09-10	$9.98	$20,509,095,393	12 / 16
2026-09-11	$9.98	$20,509,095,393	12 / 16
2026-09-12	$9.98	$20,509,095,393	12 / 16
2026-09-13	$9.98	$20,509,095,393	12 / 16
2026-09-14	$9.98	$20,509,095,393	12 / 16
2026-09-15	$9.99	$20,509,095,393	12 / 16
2026-09-16	$9.98	$20,513,445,393	12 / 16
2026-09-17	$9.98	$20,513,445,393	12 / 16
2026-09-18	$9.98	$20,513,445,393	12 / 16
2026-09-19	$9.98	$20,513,445,393	12 / 16
2026-09-20	$9.98	$20,513,445,393	12 / 16
2026-09-21	$9.98	$20,513,445,393	12 / 16
2026-09-22	$9.98	$20,513,434,553	12 / 16
2026-09-23	$9.98	$20,513,434,553	12 / 16
2026-09-24	$9.98	$20,513,434,553	12 / 16
2026-09-25	$9.98	$20,513,434,553	12 / 17
2026-09-26	$9.95	$20,549,232,481	12 / 17
2026-09-27	$9.95	$20,549,232,481	12 / 17
2026-09-28	$9.95	$20,549,232,481	12 / 17
2026-09-29	$9.93	$20,531,512,983	12 / 17
2026-09-30	$9.89	$20,543,897,313	12 / 17
2026-10-01	$9.89	$20,559,217,050	12 / 17
2026-10-02	$9.89	$20,559,217,050	12 / 17
2026-10-03	$9.87	$20,557,269,681	12 / 17
2026-10-04	$9.87	$20,557,269,681	12 / 17
2026-10-05	$9.87	$20,557,269,681	12 / 17
2026-10-06	$9.85	$20,557,269,681	12 / 17
2026-10-07	$9.83	$20,558,947,520	12 / 17
2026-10-08	$9.85	$20,533,966,357	12 / 17
2026-10-09	$9.85	$20,533,966,357	12 / 17
2026-10-10	$9.85	$20,533,966,357	12 / 17
2026-10-11	$9.85	$20,518,112,480	12 / 17
2026-10-12	$9.85	$20,518,112,480	12 / 17
2026-10-13	$9.85	$20,518,122,004	12 / 17
2026-10-14	$9.84	$20,517,857,957	12 / 17
2026-10-15	$9.84	$20,517,857,957	12 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	15	10	2
2026-06-01	15	11	3
2026-07-01	15	8	3
2026-08-01	15	8	1
2026-09-01	15	9	1
2026-10-01	14	9	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 15

$255.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoSep 24

$231.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$140.25$280.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted EPS growth of 6%-9% in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Complete spin-off of Aerospace Technologies by Q3 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Sustain free cash flow growth of 4%-10% in 2026Free cash flow: $961M
Maintain and grow revenue with 3%-6% organic growth in 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 22, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Honeywell outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis is intact, but recent changes in the sector and management transitions add uncertainty.

What's priced into Honeywell

The market currently prices HON as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. However, there is a fragility in execution quality that could impact future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to maintain organic revenue growth of 3% to 4% in 2026, despite a neutral recent financial performance. Free cash flow growth is also expected to stabilize around $2 billion, though actual cash from operations has fluctuated.

What Honeywell hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like MMM, VMI, and SEB. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a tailwind for HON. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could pose risks.