Reading AIRT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AIRT free→Reading AIRT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AIRT free→
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is not assessable due to losses. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, AIRT trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 90% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern suggests potential issues due to weak financials or fragile earnings quality. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $21.22. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $22 AIRT trades at 0× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $196 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 89% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted -3.00x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
20 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$45.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$591.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,832.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The industrial sector is slowing. If growth re-accelerates, it could benefit Air T's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up to over 5% each year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth slows down to under 5% each year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AIRT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets The information set forth under
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Conglomerates.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AIRT Air T Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 26 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
HON Honeywell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | low |
MMM 3M | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CSL Carlisle Companies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SEB Seaboard Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize the acquisition of Arena Aviation Partners to expand aviation asset management.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The acquisition of Arena Aviation Partners was completed as announced, indicating progress in expanding the aviation asset management platform. This aligns with the company's growth strategy, showing delivery on stated priorities.
“The company announced the completion of the acquisition of Arena Aviation Partners.”
“Entered into a Share Purchase Agreement to acquire Arena Aviation Partners.”
Reorganize and capitalize the aviation asset management platform through strategic agreements.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The company has entered into agreements to reorganize and capitalize its aviation asset management platform. This strategic move is aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and financial stability, though financial impacts are yet to be observed.
“Entered into agreements involving the reorganization and capitalization of its aviation asset management platform.”
Manage and address direct financial obligations and off-balance sheet arrangements.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has consistently addressed its financial obligations, including off-balance sheet arrangements. However, the financials show a net income loss of $1.64M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in improving financial health.
“Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement.”
Why it matters: Retail sales impact demand for Air T's services. Strong sales could signal better business conditions.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows growth above 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a decline or growth below 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: This report will show if Air T can improve its loss-making status. Investors will focus on revenue and profit trends.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows smaller losses or profits returning.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows ongoing losses or worse financial results.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On June 10, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), Air T, Inc. (the “Company”), through its subsidiaries and affiliates, entered into and consummated a series of related agreements and transactions involving the reorganization and capitalization of its aviation asset management platform and the acquisition of Arena Aviation Partners B.V., a Netherlands private limited company (“Arena”). The transactions were completed through Crestone Air Partners, LLC, a Delawa…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant The information set forth under
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On March 9, 2026, Travis Swenson (the “Director”) notified the Board of Directors of Air T, Inc. (the “Company”) of his resignation as a director of the Company, effective March 9, 2026. In connection with his resignation, the Director also resigned as Chair of the Audit Committee of the Board. Mr. Swenson has resigned from the Board in order to acc…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On March 8, 2026, the Company, through Crestone Air Partners, Inc. (the “ Purchaser ” or “ Crestone ”), entered into a Share Purchase Agreement (the “ Purchase Agreement ”) with Arena, the sellers party thereto (collectively, the “ Sellers ”), and Dirk Jan Smit, as Securityholders’ Agent, pursuant to which Purchaser agreed to acquire all of the outstanding shares of Arena. The transaction is expected to close in approximately two months, subject to t…
“Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement.”