Air T Inc (AIRT)
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$30.60-4.58%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Sustain EPS near $28.85 or better: EPS -5.86 vs 28.85.
Air T grew sales 12% last year. It earned $28.85 per share. The company made a positive acquisition in 2026. Management aims to fix financial problems. These steps could help profits recover.
Air T lost money recently and has weak cash flow. Management is unstable. The company faces financial risks and volatile profits. The recent 14% stock drop shows trouble.
The market expects about 15% revenue growth. Our fair value is $219.47, close to consensus. The stock price is down 14% recently, reflecting stress. We see risk in management and finances not fully priced in.
Breaks if: No progress managing financial obligations by end 2026
Breaks if: EPS falls below $28.85 next year
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 14.9% next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation with a focus on recovery and growth. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial performance has been weak and management execution is volatile.
The market appears to price AIRT as cheap compared to its peers, with an expectations gap indicating that investors may be anticipating further challenges. The valuation suggests that the stock is justified at its current level, but the fundamentals are not strong.
Fundamentals are likely to remain under pressure in the near term, given the company's loss-making status and weak recent performance. Management's efforts to integrate the Arena acquisition and grow the Rex regional airline operations show mixed results, which could impact future performance.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like MMM, HON, and VMI, as their results will influence AIRT's trajectory. Additionally, management's ability to execute on integration and recovery plans will be critical in determining future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious'.
Yes, our read has weakened. The company faces challenges in growing its airline operations. Rex engine constraints hinder recovery and growth objectives. This impacts the overall outlook for the company.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AIRT faces significant challenges that could impact its recovery and growth potential. Not investment advice.